Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 4

Date: 8 November 2023, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bulgaria	BTV Action
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 1
Portugal	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Napoli		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	7.5
	1.43	4.5	7.5
	1.46	4.6	7.4	Watch
	1.44	4.73	8.19
	1.44	4.73	7.81
	1.4	4.5	7.5
	1.43	4.65	7.7
	1.45	4.8	7.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.51)	4.66 ↑ (4.32)	7.65 ↑ (6.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
66.9%

Draw
20.6%

Union Berlin
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

22%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

21.8%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.6%	3.1%	5.3%

Napoli - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (120 of 131 users predict this - 91.6%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.85% – 96.35%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 3. Natan 6. Rui M. 99. Anguissa F. 68. Lobotka S. 20. Zielinski P. 21. Politano M. 81. Raspadori G. 77. Kvaratskhelia K.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 3. Jaeckel P. 23. Bonucci L. 4. Leite D. 18. Juranovic J. 19. Haberer J. 8. Khedira R. (C) 20. Laidouni A. 26. Roussillon J. 27. Becker S. 11. Fofana D. D.
Substitutes
24. Cajuste J. 14. Contini N. (G) 7. Elmas E. 70. Gaetano G. 95. Gollini P. (G) 5. Juan Jesus 29. Lindstrom J. 17. Olivera M. 55. Ostigard L. 18. Simeone G. 59. Zanoli A. 23. Zerbin A.	7. Aaronson B. 17. Behrens K. 38. Dehl L. 6. Gosens R. 31. Knoche R. 33. Kral A. 37. Schwolow A. (G) 39. Stein Y. (G) 29. Tousart L. 28. Trimmel C. 10. Volland K.
Coaches
Garcia R.	Fischer U.

Preview

Napoli is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Union Berlin has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Napoli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Napoli is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Osimhen V. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Dehl L. (Injury) Doekhi D. (Knock)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Juranovic J. (Muscle Injury) Schafer A. (Foot Injury) Schwolow A. (Hip Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Napoli won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
04.11.23	Salernitana - Napoli	0:2 ✺
29.10.23	Napoli - Milan	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.10.23	Union Berlin - Napoli	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
21.10.23	Verona - Napoli	1:3 ✺
08.10.23	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTWWL
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
04.11.23	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
31.10.23	Stuttgart - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.10.23	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.10.23	Union Berlin - Napoli	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.10.23	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
24.10.23	Union Berlin - Napoli	0:1

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