Match Info

LaLiga - Round 5

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, Startimes Am'mobi, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 2
Angola	20:00	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, TOD
Australia	05:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	21:00	DAZN
Azerbaijan	23:00	AzTV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	01:00	Begin
Belarus	22:00	Belarus 5
Belgium	21:00	DAZN 1
Bolivia	15:00	ESPN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	16:00	Amazon Prime Video
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
China	03:00	Migu
Colombia	14:00	ESPN
Croatia	21:00	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 1
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Ecuador	14:00	ESPN
Estonia	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	22:00	Disney+
France	21:00	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	21:00	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Haiti	15:00	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong Kong	03:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	21:00	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	19:00	Disney+
India	00:30	FanCode
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	22:00	ONE Sport
Italy	21:00	DAZN Italia
Japan	04:00	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Kyrgyzstan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Lithuania	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Macao	03:00	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	00:00	Medianet
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	13:00	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	22:00	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	21:00	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	07:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport LaLiga
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	22:00	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 1
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	Coupang Play
Spain	21:00	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	03:00	DAZN
Tajikistan	00:00	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	02:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	22:00	S Sport
Turkmenistan	00:00	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Disney+
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	ESPN App, ESPN+, SportsEngine Play
Uzbekistan	00:00	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN
Vietnam	02:00	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Real Madrid		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	1.14	8	15	Watch
	1.16	8.75	14.00
	1.12	9.50	18.00	Watch
	1.16	9.2	19.5
	1.17	8.86	15.01	Watch
	1.14	8.95	19
	1.15	8.63	17	Watch
	1.16	9.2	17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.15 ↑ (1.14)	8.89 ↑ (8.63)	16.81 ↓ (17.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
83.5%

Draw
10.8%

Rayo Vallecano
5.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

83.6%

11%

5.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 27 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 79.3% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 - Rayo Vallecano (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4 - under (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.83) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB, 1st Half - Rayo Vallecano (7.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Real (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 24. Dumfries D. 16. Konate I. 22. Rudiger A. 18. Carreras A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 20. Silva B. 25. Diomande Y. 5. Bellingham J. 7. Vinicius Junior 10. Mbappe K.	25. Audero E. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 6. Ciss P. 17. Pedrosa A. 36. Bouare G. 8. Lopez U. 14. Tsitaishvili G. 4. Diaz P. 18. Garcia A. (C) 10. Camello S.
Substitutes
12. Alexander-Arnold T. 2. Asencio R. 6. Camavinga E. 17. Cucurella M. 21. Diaz B. 9. Endrick 19. Espi C. 15. Guler A. 4. Huijsen D. 13. Lunin A. (G) 27. Pitarch T. 14. Tchouameni A.	9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 28. Becerra S. 37. Belaid R. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 26. de las Sias M. 22. Fernandez P. 3. Kumbulla M. 30. Molina A. (G) 31. Roman M. 15. Sadick M. 23. Valentin O.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	San Jose B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Mbappe K. (Penalty Awarded),
17', 2 - 0, Carreras A. ⚽, Mbappe K. (A),
35', 3 - 0, Bellingham J. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Valverde F. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
51', 3 - 1, Camello S. ⚽,
67', Diaz P. ↓, Belaid R. ↑,
67', Bouare G. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
69', Silva B. ↓, Tchouameni A. ↑,
72', Diomande Y. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
75', Lopez U. ↓, Sadick M. ↑,
75', Camello S. ↓, Alemao ↑,
76', Ciss P. 🟨,
86', Pedrosa A. ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
89', Vinicius Junior ↓, Cucurella M. ↑,
90+1', 4 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Guler A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 2.

Real is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Rayo Vallecano's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Real: Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hip Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Batalla A. (Broken calfbone) Luiz Felipe (Hamstring Injury) Nteka R. (Muscle Injury) Palazon I. (Muscle Injury) Perez F. (Red Card) Vertrouwd J. (Muscle Injury) de Frutos J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Balliu I. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real won 14 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 48:19. (average 2.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 31:7. (average 3.1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25:10	15	24
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	12:20	-8	9

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 23.56% Rayo Vallecano: 0.17%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.09.26	Betis - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Real Madrid - Málaga	4:0 ✺
26.08.26	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1 ✺
22.08.26	Espanyol - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWWW
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander	3:2 ✺
31.08.26	Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano	5:2 ✺
20.08.26	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Charleroi - Rayo Vallecano	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1
09.11.25	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	0:0
09.03.25	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1
14.12.24	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	3:3
18.02.24	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	1:1
05.11.23	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	0:0
24.05.23	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1

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