Match Info

LaLiga - Round 5

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, Startimes Am'mobi, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 2
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	AzTV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
China	Migu
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Disney+
France	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+, SportsEngine Play
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Real Madrid		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	1.14	8	15	Watch
	1.16	8.75	14.00
	1.12	9.50	18.00	Watch
	1.16	9.2	19.5
	1.17	8.86	15.01	Watch
	1.14	8.95	19
	1.15	8.63	17	Watch
	1.16	9.2	17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.15 ↑ (1.14)	8.89 ↑ (8.63)	16.81 ↓ (17.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
83.5%

Draw
10.8%

Rayo Vallecano
5.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

83.6%

11%

5.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 27 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 79.3% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 - Rayo Vallecano (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4 - under (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.83) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB, 1st Half - Rayo Vallecano (7.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Real (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 24. Dumfries D. 16. Konate I. 22. Rudiger A. 18. Carreras A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 20. Silva B. 25. Diomande Y. 5. Bellingham J. 7. Vinicius Junior 10. Mbappe K.	25. Audero E. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 6. Ciss P. 17. Pedrosa A. 36. Bouare G. 8. Lopez U. 14. Tsitaishvili G. 4. Diaz P. 18. Garcia A. (C) 10. Camello S.
Substitutes
12. Alexander-Arnold T. 2. Asencio R. 6. Camavinga E. 17. Cucurella M. 21. Diaz B. 9. Endrick 19. Espi C. 15. Guler A. 4. Huijsen D. 13. Lunin A. (G) 27. Pitarch T. 14. Tchouameni A.	9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 28. Becerra S. 37. Belaid R. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 26. de las Sias M. 22. Fernandez P. 3. Kumbulla M. 30. Molina A. (G) 31. Roman M. 15. Sadick M. 23. Valentin O.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	San Jose B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Mbappe K. (Penalty Awarded),
17', 2 - 0, Carreras A. ⚽, Mbappe K. (A),
35', 3 - 0, Bellingham J. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Valverde F. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
51', 3 - 1, Camello S. ⚽,
67', Diaz P. ↓, Belaid R. ↑,
67', Bouare G. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
69', Silva B. ↓, Tchouameni A. ↑,
72', Diomande Y. ↓, Guler A. ↑,
75', Lopez U. ↓, Sadick M. ↑,
75', Camello S. ↓, Alemao ↑,
76', Ciss P. 🟨,
86', Pedrosa A. ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
89', Vinicius Junior ↓, Cucurella M. ↑,
90+1', 4 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Guler A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 2.

Real is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Rayo Vallecano's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Real: Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hip Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Batalla A. (Broken calfbone) Luiz Felipe (Hamstring Injury) Nteka R. (Muscle Injury) Palazon I. (Muscle Injury) Perez F. (Red Card) Vertrouwd J. (Muscle Injury) de Frutos J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Balliu I. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real won 14 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 48:19. (average 2.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 31:7. (average 3.1:0.7).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 20.23% Rayo Vallecano: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18:8	10	15
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11:16	-5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.09.26	Betis - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Real Madrid - Málaga	4:0 ✺
26.08.26	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1 ✺
22.08.26	Espanyol - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWWW
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Rayo Vallecano - Racing Santander	3:2 ✺
31.08.26	Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano	5:2 ✺
20.08.26	Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Charleroi - Rayo Vallecano	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1
09.11.25	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	0:0
09.03.25	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1
14.12.24	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	3:3
18.02.24	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	1:1
05.11.23	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	0:0
24.05.23	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1

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