Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 13

Date: 17 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV, Real Madrid TV


	Real Madrid Castilla		Antequera

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.25	4
	1.77	3.2	4.2
	1.84	3.35	4.2
	1.81	3.27	4.77
	1.86	3.28	4.08	Watch
	1.77	3.35	4.57
	1.84	3.35	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.14)	3.29 ↑ (2.99)	4.29 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
50.7%

Draw
27.9%

Antequera
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

30.8%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

30.5%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid Castilla's performance.

Antequera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid Castilla that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Antequera than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Antequera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Real Madrid Castilla - Antequera Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 2. Lorenzo 29. Rivas M. 4. Pujol E. 22. Jimenez D. 33. Perea C. 6. Andres C. 26. De Llanos H. 23. Yusi 9. Munoz V. 7. Garcia G.	13. Lario J. (G) 12. Fomeyem F. 4. Perez I. 22. Ortega I. 3. Carrion J. 21. Biabiany J. 10. Nunez C. 5. Marcelo A. 7. Luismi Gutierrez 16. Elejalde I. 9. Ribeiro
Substitutes
16. Antonio David 25. de Luis M. (G) 28. Ribes K. 17. Ruiz D. 36. Yanez D. 19. Zuniga L.	30. Alcover D. (G) 20. Aspra J. 18. Belza J. 19. Fernandez X. 8. Lanzini T. 23. Luengo Herrera L. M. 15. Moreno A. 1. Moreno I. (G) 14. Rubio A. 6. Toni Arranz 29. Topo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Ortega I. ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, Garcia G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Carrion J. 🟨,
58', Marcelo A. 🟨,
62', Perea C. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
63', Marcelo A. ↓, Aspra J. ↑,
71', De Llanos H. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
71', Carrion J. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
71', Ribeiro ↓, Rubio A. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Elejalde I. ⚽,
85', Yusi ↓, Zuniga L. ↑,
86', Elejalde I. ↓, Toni Arranz ↑,
90+2', Toni Arranz 🟨,
90+5', Luismi Gutierrez 🟨,
90+6', Rubio A. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Recent matches Real Madrid Castilla is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Antequera is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Antequera could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Real Madrid Castilla is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Real Madrid Castilla won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1 (average 1:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Madrid Castilla won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
08.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Intercity	5:0 ✺
02.11.24	Atlético Madrid B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
27.10.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	1:1 ✺
20.10.24	Alcorcón - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
12.10.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Yeclano Deportivo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTTLT
- Antequera CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.11.24	Antequera - Ibiza	2:0 ✺
02.11.24	Yeclano Deportivo - Antequera	1:1 ✺
27.10.24	Antequera - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:0 ✺
20.10.24	Alcoyano - Antequera	1:1 ✺
16.10.24	Antequera - Marbella	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
09.03.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Antequera	0:0
03.09.23	Antequera - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2

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