Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 15

Date: 3 December 2023, Sunday


	Real Madrid Castilla		San Fernando

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	4.2
	1.7	3.4	4.2
	1.68	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.55
	1.8	3.45	4.56
	1.74	3.52	4.5
	1.73	3.45	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.07)	3.5 ↑ (3)	4.44 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
53%

Draw
26.3%

San Fernando
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

29.6%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

28.7%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid Castilla's performance.

San Fernando has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Fernando might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid Castilla that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Fernando than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Fernando could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Real Madrid Castilla - San Fernando Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). San Fernando will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. de Luis M. (G) 19. Lorenzo 16. Asencio R. 15. Pujol E. 3. Obrador R. 10. Paz N. 6. Martin M. 8. Zidane T. 11. Gonzalez P. 17. Garcia G. 22. Palacios C.	1. Fuoli D. (G) 2. Lillo 5. Blanco C. 15. Ruiz V. 3. Ruiz L. 10. Ramos D. 6. Molina D. 19. Martinez P. 11. Aquino D. 21. Arroyo N. 9. Ribeiro
Substitutes
20. Angel M. 1. Canizares L. (G) 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 33. Ribes E. 9. Rodriguez A. 34. Serrano M. 2. Tobias V.	13. Arana E. (G) 25. Davila Y. 20. Estacio X. 4. Farrando M. 14. Fullana F. 16. Leon C. 18. Naveira U. 17. Sanchez A. 12. Selma D.

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 10).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

San Fernando could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Real Madrid Castilla is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
25.11.23	Alcoyano - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
19.11.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	1:2 ✺
12.11.23	Real Murcia - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
05.11.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Baleares	5:0 ✺
29.10.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLTWT
- CD San Fernando
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
26.11.23	San Fernando - Melilla	4:1 ✺
18.11.23	Mérida AD - San Fernando	0:2 ✺
11.11.23	San Fernando - Antequera	0:1 ✺
04.11.23	Recreativo Huelva - San Fernando	1:0 ✺
28.10.23	San Fernando - Castellón	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.02.23	San Fernando - Real Madrid Castilla	3:2
20.11.22	Real Madrid Castilla - San Fernando	2:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.02.22	San Fernando - Real Madrid Castilla	3:1
04.09.21	Real Madrid Castilla - San Fernando	4:0

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