Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Collao (Alcoy)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Alcoyano		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	4.33
	1.72	3.4	4
	2.11	3.4	3.2
	2.1	3.48	2.99
	2.11	3.5	3.05	Watch
	2.17	3.34	3.11
	2.11	3.4	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.89)	3.43 ↑ (3.21)	3.41 ↓ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcoyano
46.1%

Draw
26.9%

Real Madrid Castilla
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

28.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

29.8%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcoyano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcoyano than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Alcoyano - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alcoyano will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Real Madrid Castilla will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcoyano: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Real Madrid Castilla (2.54) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alcoyano will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcoyano (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Real Madrid Castilla (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Valens J. (G) 2. Ferriz P. 18. Atienza P. 4. Farru 3. Rodriguez A. 23. Pastrana V. 6. Garcia I. 20. Undabarrena E. 9. de Palmas R. 19. Losada M. 24. Qasmi Y.	1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 48. Rivas M. 4. Pujol E. 17. Ruiz D. 2. Lorenzo 20. Campos A. 16. Antonio David 27. Fortuny P. 11. Alonso B. 44. Munoz V. 19. Zuniga L.
Substitutes
5. Albisua H. 14. Anton J. 15. Blanco C. 1. Garcia M. (G) 7. Herrera C. 10. Lara J. A. 17. Lopez S. 8. Molina D. 22. Velazquez D.	25. de Luis M. (G) 40. Diocou B. 22. Jimenez D. 10. Palacios C. 15. Ribes K. 41. Serrano M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', 🟨,
30', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', 🟨,
77', Ferriz P. 🟥,
77', 🟨,
83', 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Alcoyano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Madrid Castilla is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Alcoyano is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcoyano won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Alcoyano won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Alcoyano
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.05.25	Algeciras - Alcoyano	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Alcoyano - Intercity	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Alcoyano	0:3 ✺
26.04.25	Alcoyano - Recreativo Huelva	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Atlético Madrid B - Alcoyano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWTL
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.05.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Fuenlabrada	4:0 ✺
10.05.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
04.05.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Marbella	3:2 ✺
27.04.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Recreativo Huelva - Real Madrid Castilla	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.01.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcoyano	2:0
20.04.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcoyano	3:1
25.11.23	Alcoyano - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
17.04.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcoyano	1:2
22.01.22	Alcoyano - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1

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