Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 16

Date: 6 December 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio Enrique Roca (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Real Murcia		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	1.85	3	4.2
	1.87	3	3.9
	1.9	3.1	4.3
	1.95	3.1	4.63
	1.84	3.09	4.53	Watch
	1.89	3.2	4.18
	1.9	3.1	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.23)	3.08 ↑ (3.05)	4.29 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
48.8%

Draw
29.8%

Real Madrid Castilla
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

30%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

31%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Murcia's performance.

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid Castilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Murcia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid Castilla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Real Murcia - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 18. Vicente D. 6. Gonzalez A. 4. Saveljich E. 2. Mier J. 15. Yriarte J. 24. Moha Moukhliss 14. Leon P. 17. Rojas C. 7. Buron L. 9. Benito P. A. P.	13. Fran (G) 22. Jimenez D. 29. Rivas M. 28. Ribes K. 23. Yusi 6. Andres C. 16. Antonio David 27. Fortuny P. 7. Garcia G. 17. Ruiz D. 9. Munoz V.
Substitutes
16. Boateng R. 21. Cadete 11. Carrillo J. 5. Jaso Zunzarren A. 22. Juan Carlos 8. Larrea P. 23. Lopez A. 29. Matheus Cadorini 13. Piedra I. (G) 12. Raul A. 19. Soler K. 27. Toral A.	38. Aguado D. 8. Angel M. 26. De Llanos H. 25. de Luis M. (G) 2. Lorenzo 1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 36. Yanez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽,
16', Moha Moukhliss 🟨,
18', 2 - 0, Buron L. ⚽,
42', Yusi 🟨,
45+3', Fortuny P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Antonio David ↓, Lorenzo ↑,
52', 2 - 1, Ribes K. ⚽,
55', Buron L. 🟨,
58', Leon P. ↓, Boateng R. ↑,
58', Moha Moukhliss ↓, Juan Carlos ↑,
61', 3 - 1, Juan Carlos ⚽,
62', Ruiz D. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
62', Fortuny P. ↓, Angel M. ↑,
70', Rojas C. ↓, Soler K. ↑,
70', Benito P. A. P. ↓, Raul A. ↑,
70', Garcia G. ↓, De Llanos H. ↑,
75', Mier J. 🟨,
87', Buron L. ↓, Toral A. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Murcia won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Murcia is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Murcia won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:9 (average 0.7:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Murcia won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0 (average 0.3:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
30.11.24	Ibiza - Real Murcia	1:2 ✺
24.11.24	Real Murcia - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0 ✺
16.11.24	Algeciras - Real Murcia	1:1 ✺
09.11.24	Real Murcia - Atlético Madrid B	1:1 ✺
03.11.24	Ceuta - Real Murcia	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTTTL
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
30.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	6:0 ✺
24.11.24	Fuenlabrada - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
17.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Antequera	1:2 ✺
08.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Intercity	5:0 ✺
02.11.24	Atlético Madrid B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.02.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Murcia	5:1
12.11.23	Real Murcia - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
07.06.14	Real Murcia - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0
11.01.14	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Murcia	2:2
05.05.13	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Murcia	2:0
30.11.12	Real Murcia - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0

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