Match Info

Date: 23 July 2021, Friday


	Real Monarchs		Las Vegas Lights

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.4	2.8
	2.3	3.4	2.6
	2.33	3.3	2.65
	2.54	3.64	2.63
	2.4	3.3	2.6
	2.39	3.5	2.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.24)	3.42 ↓ (3.48)	2.65 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Monarchs
38.8%

Draw
26.7%

Las Vegas Lights
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

26.4%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

18.4%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Monarchs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Las Vegas Lights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Monarchs than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Monarchs that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Vegas Lights than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Las Vegas Lights could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Real Monarchs - Las Vegas Lights Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 10).

Real Monarchs has the most likely position - 7 (85.12%), has project points - 28, has currently - 10, has a very small chance of playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of qtrs (<1%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Las Vegas has the most likely position - 6 (24%), has project points - 33, has currently - 13, has a small chance of playoffs (14%), has a very small chance of qtrs (4%), has a very small chance of semis (1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Real Monarchs is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Las Vegas is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Las Vegas could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Real Monarchs won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Real Monarchs won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Monarchs SLC
USL Championship
18.07.21	Austin Bold - Real Monarchs	1:0 ✺
09.07.21	Real Monarchs - El Paso Locomotive	1:3 ✺
04.07.21	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Real Monarchs	3:1 ✺
30.06.21	Real Monarchs - New Mexico United	3:2 ✺
26.06.21	Real Monarchs - San Antonio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LLLWT
- Las Vegas Lights
USL Championship
17.07.21	El Paso Locomotive - Las Vegas Lights	1:0 ✺
14.07.21	Las Vegas Lights - Sacramento Republic	1:2 ✺
10.07.21	Oakland Roots - Las Vegas Lights	1:2 ✺
03.07.21	Las Vegas Lights - Tacoma Defiance	1:0 ✺
25.06.21	Las Vegas Lights - San Diego Loyal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
04.09.19	Real Monarchs - Las Vegas Lights	2:2
30.03.19	Las Vegas Lights - Real Monarchs	1:0
19.05.18	Las Vegas Lights - Real Monarchs	0:2
30.04.18	Real Monarchs - Las Vegas Lights	0:0

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