Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Cashman Field (Las Vegas, NV)

Referee: Touchan R. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Las Vegas Lights		Sacramento Republic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.1	3	2.28
	3.4	3.04	2.34
	3.24	3.15	2.26	Watch
	3	2.88	2.3
	3.23	2.93	2.23	Watch
	3.15	2.85	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↑ (2.91)	2.98 ↑ (2.94)	2.29 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Las Vegas Lights
28.9%

Draw
30.9%

Sacramento Republic
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

31.4%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

31.2%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Vegas Lights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Vegas Lights than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (-3%)

Las Vegas Lights - Sacramento Republic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lanphier C. (G) 20. Smart S. 3. Jones N. 33. Guillen A. 81. Antonoglou T. 43. Okyere A. 23. Ybarra M. 9. Arteaga M. 27. Probo G. 11. Pinzon C. 14. Rodriguez J.	1. Vitiello D. (G) 15. Essel A. 6. Kleemann F. 4. Desmond L. (C) 22. Benitez M. 27. Crisostomo D. 18. Kaye M. 10. Rodriguez A. 20. Willey B. 17. Wanner D. 71. Edwards K.
Substitutes
10. Azcona E. 17. Leal M. 18. Locker C. 99. Mazzola J. (G) 7. Mines B. 30. Ofeimu B. 21. Pickering N.	11. Ajago F. 23. Cambridge B. 7. Malango M. 31. Randolph J. (G) 30. Rivas S. 3. Spaulding R. 55. Ukaegbu C.
Coaches
Rensing D.	Collins N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Guillen A. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Kaye M. ⚽, Edwards K. (A),
36', Essel A. 🟨,
43', Kleemann F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Jones N. 🟨,
64', Edwards K. ↓, Ajago F. ↑,
70', Arteaga M. ↓, Leal M. ↑,
70', Wanner D. ↓, Malango M. ↑,
70', Essel A. ↓, Ukaegbu C. ↑,
75', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
78', Malango M. 🟨,
81', Okyere A. ↓, Mines B. ↑,
81', Rodriguez A. ↓, Cambridge B. ↑,
90', Pinzon C. ↓, Locker C. ↑,
90+1', Guillen A. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 2.

Las Vegas has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sacramento Republic is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sacramento Republic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Las Vegas has had a series of away games.

Recently, Sacramento Republic has had a series of home games.

Sacramento Republic could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:32. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Las Vegas won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Las Vegas Lights
USL Championship
04.04.26	El Paso Locomotive - Las Vegas Lights	3:2 ✺
28.03.26	Las Vegas Lights - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Tulsa - Las Vegas Lights	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Las Vegas Lights	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWLLT
- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
04.04.26	Sacramento Republic - Phoenix Rising	2:0 ✺
US Open Cup
31.03.26	Valley 559 - Sacramento Republic	0:4 ✺
USL Championship
28.03.26	Sacramento Republic - El Paso Locomotive	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Sacramento Republic - Monterey Bay	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
18.03.26	Sacramento Republic - El Farolito	2:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
04.07.25	Las Vegas Lights - Sacramento Republic	0:2
USL Cup
31.05.25	Sacramento Republic - Las Vegas Lights	4:0
USL Championship
17.05.25	Sacramento Republic - Las Vegas Lights	5:0
01.11.24	Las Vegas Lights - Sacramento Republic	1:0 penalties
21.09.24	Las Vegas Lights - Sacramento Republic	2:1
03.07.24	Sacramento Republic - Las Vegas Lights	0:1
01.10.23	Sacramento Republic - Las Vegas Lights	2:0

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