Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 20

Date: 21 January 2024, Sunday


	Real Murcia		Atlético Baleares

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	3.4	Watch
	2.05	3	3.3
	2.1	3.1	3.6
	2.11	3.04	3.93
	1.67	3.2	4.33
	2.05	3.08	3.77
	2.1	3	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.69)	3.05 ↓ (3.2)	3.68 ↓ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
45.1%

Draw
30%

Atlético Baleares
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

27.8%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

29.5%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Murcia's form might have worsened.

Atlético Baleares has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Baleares's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Murcia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Baleares than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Baleares, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Real Murcia - Atlético Baleares Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Murcia will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Garcia M. (G) 2. Ruiz J. 4. Mauro M. 6. Gonzalez A. 3. Baro M. 14. Leon P. 7. Gomez I. 21. Pina Tomas 8. Larrea P. 18. Rojas C. 25. Rubio A.	1. Vila R. (G) 2. Campabadal E. 12. Gonzalez R. 22. Ofoli F. 23. Ferroni L. 30. Ortega D. 4. Sierra J. 14. Navarro D. 19. Shashoua A. 8. Ramon A. 17. Alarcon R.
Substitutes
33. Carmona M. 32. Coto E. 15. Lopez A. 22. Molina A. 13. Piedra I. (G) 28. Totti 17. Vega D. 34. Yeboah D.	5. Jaume J. 13. Lario J. (G) 7. Marong N. 21. Nana 10. Pastrana V. 29. Piera J. 11. Ramirez Carrasco M. A. 33. Rivas 6. Villapalos A.

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 13 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Murcia is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Atlético Baleares is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Murcia is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Murcia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Murcia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
14.01.24	Melilla - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
02.01.24	Real Murcia - Atlético Madrid B	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.12.23	UCAM Murcia - Real Murcia	3:0 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.12.23	Castellón - Real Murcia	2:1 ✺
10.12.23	Real Murcia - Antequera	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 TTLLL
- Atlético Baleares
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
14.01.24	Atlético Baleares - Recreativo Huelva	0:2 ✺
03.01.24	Linares Deportivo - Atlético Baleares	0:0 ✺
17.12.23	Atlético Baleares - Córdoba	0:0 ✺
10.12.23	San Fernando - Atlético Baleares	1:1 ✺
03.12.23	Atlético Baleares - Alcoyano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
08.10.23	Atlético Baleares - Real Murcia	0:1
16.04.23	Real Murcia - Atlético Baleares	0:1
18.12.22	Atlético Baleares - Real Murcia	0:3

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