Match Info

BOLIVIA: Division Profesional - Clausura - Round 26

Date: 7 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Real Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App


	Real Santa Cruz		Guabirá

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.1	1.67	Watch
	2.87	3.4	2.1
	4.4	4.2	1.64	Watch
	4	4.1	1.63
	4.04	4.11	1.74	Watch
	2.8	3.4	2.25
	4.49	4.15	1.62	Watch
	4.4	4.2	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.94 ↑ (2.55)	3.96 ↑ (3.48)	1.79 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Santa Cruz
23.8%

Draw
23.7%

Guabirá
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

26.5%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

26%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Santa Cruz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Santa Cruz's form might have worsened.

Guabirá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guabirá's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Santa Cruz than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Santa Cruz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guabirá than the current prediction. (-15.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guabirá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Real Santa Cruz - Guabirá Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Real Santa Cruz will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Guabirá will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zamora D. (C) 14. Ibanez J. 37. Mendoza G. 2. Ruano L. 30. Suarez R. 23. Pozo S. 7. Moreno B. 29. Abastoflor C. 41. Navarro S. 44. Gonzalez E. 10. Caicedo J.	12. Ferrel M. (G) 14. Herrera J. 26. Arce S. 21. Portillo M. 30. Vasquez R. 7. Peredo G. 8. Melean A. 15. Morales R. 19. Velasco J. 27. Quintana A. 99. Pedro
Substitutes
31. Cardenas I. 77. Castillo J. 36. Ledezma O. (G) 4. Lopez B. 39. Malgor G. 80. Melgar R. 18. Mercado A. 6. Ovando M. 19. Ribera O. 21. Saldias L. 20. Vaca Hurtado E. 9. Veizaga J.	25. Cuellar J. (G) 35. Da Silva Moreno D. 18. Ferrufino J. 33. Hurtado Badani L. E. 2. Hurtado D. 9. Japa E. 29. Masskooni N. 11. Melgar S. 20. Montenegro J. 95. Orozco Quiroga J. N. 24. Parada J. 6. Zazpe L.
Coaches
Gerpe W.	Mojica G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Morales R. 🟨,
16', Melean A. 🟨,
39', Quintana A. 🟨,
40', Caicedo J. 🟨,
44', Ibanez J. 🟨,
45+1', Ruano L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Mendoza G. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
64', Peredo G. 🟨,
66', Pedro ↓, Montenegro J. ↑,
68', Moreno B. ↓, Mercado A. ↑,
74', Morales R. ↓, Parada J. ↑,
75', Navarro S. ↓, Ribera O. ↑,
75', Caicedo J. ↓, Malgor G. ↑,
81', Gonzalez E. 🟨,
85', 0 - 1, Herrera J. (Pen),
88', Vasquez R. ↓, Japa E. ↑,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real Santa Cruz won 3.

Real Santa Cruz is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Guabirá is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Guabirá could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Real Santa Cruz won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14:12 (average 1.2:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Santa Cruz won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Santa Cruz
Bolivian Division Profesional
04.12.24	The Strongest - Real Santa Cruz	4:0 ✺
30.11.24	Aurora - Real Santa Cruz	7:1 ✺
28.11.24	Real Santa Cruz - Independiente Petroleros	0:2 ✺
25.11.24	Oriente Petrolero - Real Santa Cruz	1:3 ✺
29.10.24	Real Santa Cruz - Universitario de Vinto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 LLLWT
- Guabirá
Bolivian Division Profesional
02.12.24	Guabirá - Always Ready	1:3 ✺
29.11.24	Universitario de Vinto - Guabirá	1:0 ✺
26.11.24	Guabirá - Real Tomayapo	2:1 ✺
17.11.24	GVCD San José - Guabirá	5:0 ✺
31.10.24	Guabirá - Oriente Petrolero	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Division Profesional
13.08.24	Guabirá - Real Santa Cruz	0:1
08.03.24	Real Santa Cruz - Guabirá	1:1
24.02.24	Guabirá - Real Santa Cruz	1:2
Bolivian Copa Pacena
10.08.23	Real Santa Cruz - Guabirá	1:3
Bolivian Division Profesional
30.07.23	Guabirá - Real Santa Cruz	1:2
25.02.23	Real Santa Cruz - Guabirá	0:0
Bolivian Copa Pacena
22.02.23	Guabirá - Real Santa Cruz	0:1

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