Match Info

BOLIVIA: Division Profesional - Clausura - Round 21

Date: 29 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Real Santa Cruz (Santa Cruz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App


	Real Santa Cruz		Universitario de Vinto

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.8	Watch
	1.88	3.25	3.5
	1.9	3.4	3.6	Watch
	1.98	3.48	3.53
	1.99	3.5	3.61	Watch
	1.95	3.38	3.65	Watch
	1.9	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.46)	3.42 ↑ (3.37)	3.61 ↑ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Santa Cruz
47.6%

Draw
26.9%

Universitario de Vinto
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

27.2%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

26.5%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Santa Cruz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Santa Cruz's performance.

Universitario de Vinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Universitario de Vinto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Santa Cruz than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Santa Cruz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Vinto than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Universitario de Vinto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Real Santa Cruz - Universitario de Vinto Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Real Santa Cruz will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zamora D. (C) 22. Montero E. 2. Ruano L. 30. Suarez R. 41. Navarro S. 6. Ovando M. 18. Mercado A. 37. Mendoza G. 20. Vaca Hurtado E. 29. Abastoflor C. 44. Gonzalez E.	12. Almada G. (G) 47. Mendoza E. 26. Lencinas J. 2. Vila J. (C) 25. Ribera C. 7. Nunez M. 8. Camacho Almanza D. A. 14. Mercado Galvez J. S. 27. Cuellar Rosales J. A. 9. Tobar T. 28. Jose Pinto
Substitutes
16. Ardaya L. 26. Barrios M. 10. Caicedo J. 5. Coplot L. 17. Lara J. 80. Melgar R. 7. Moreno B. 19. Ribera O. 45. Rios J. (G) 15. Rueda Bascope S. 21. Saldias L.	15. Alcocer P. 22. Calicho J. 10. Castro R. 5. Cuellar G. 40. Garcia P. (G) 30. Laredo P. 21. Lazarte J. 24. Llano R. 38. Magallanes J. 18. Orihuela R. 29. Vaca A. 23. Vallejos Y.
Coaches
Straccia M.	Godoy P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Mercado A. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
59', Camacho Almanza D. A. 🟨,
70', Nunez M. ↓, Llano R. ↑,
70', Camacho Almanza D. A. ↓, Cuellar G. ↑,
74', Vaca Hurtado E. ↓, Moreno B. ↑,
76', Ribera C. 🟨,
80', Ribera C. ↓, Castro R. ↑,
81', Abastoflor C. ↓, Lara J. ↑,
81', Navarro S. ↓, Saldias L. ↑,
85', 0 - 1, Llano R. (Pen),
87', 1 - 1, Moreno B. ⚽,
89', Mercado Galvez J. S. ↓, Alcocer P. ↑,
89', Mendoza E. ↓, Magallanes J. ↑,
90+2', Ruano L. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 11).

Real Santa Cruz is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Universitario de Vinto is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Real Santa Cruz won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.3:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Santa Cruz won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Santa Cruz
Bolivian Division Profesional
26.10.24	Royal Pari - Real Santa Cruz	0:2 ✺
23.10.24	Real Santa Cruz - Bolívar	2:3 ✺
19.10.24	GVCD San José - Real Santa Cruz	4:0 ✺
01.10.24	Real Santa Cruz - Nacional Potosí	2:4 ✺
26.09.24	Jorge Wilstermann - Real Santa Cruz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLLLL
- Universitario de Vinto
Bolivian Division Profesional
26.10.24	Universitario de Vinto - The Strongest	2:4 ✺
22.10.24	Aurora - Universitario de Vinto	1:2 ✺
18.10.24	Universitario de Vinto - Real Tomayapo	2:1 ✺
24.09.24	Royal Pari - Universitario de Vinto	0:0 ✺
20.09.24	Universitario de Vinto - Nacional Potosí	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Division Profesional
19.07.24	Universitario de Vinto - Real Santa Cruz	1:1
25.11.23	Real Santa Cruz - Universitario de Vinto	0:0
28.05.23	Universitario de Vinto - Real Santa Cruz	1:0
26.08.22	Universitario de Vinto - Real Santa Cruz	2:0

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