Match Info

HONDURAS: Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 7

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Martinez (Tocoa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Real Sociedad Tocoa		Lobos UPNFM

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.24	3.73
				Watch
	2	3.1	3.6
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.15)	3.17 ↓ (3.35)	3.67 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad Tocoa
45.8%

Draw
29.1%

Lobos UPNFM
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

26.6%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

24.5%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad Tocoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Lobos UPNFM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lobos UPNFM might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad Tocoa than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Sociedad Tocoa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lobos UPNFM could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Real Sociedad Tocoa - Lobos UPNFM Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roa A. (G) 16. Jones A. 34. Ramos J. 2. Martinez D. 6. Martinez A. N. 15. Dominguez J. 23. Delgado E. (C) 32. Monico D. 9. Martinez G. 13. Felix B. 19. Diaz S.	1. Valladares C. (G) 2. Alvarez K. 5. Garcia F. 16. Vasquez E. 13. Godoy M. 21. Barrios O. 14. Gutierrez C. 17. Padilla J. 18. Garcia R. 7. Rochez C. 9. Rochez J. (C)
Substitutes
14. Carrasco M. 10. Dolmo Y. 8. Dominguez C. 4. Enamorado N. 25. Gomez A. 22. Gonzalez O. 20. Gotay P. 11. Martinez R. 3. Ramirez W. 7. Reyes D. 27. Reyes F. (G) 30. Turner B.	8. Aceituno M. 10. Flores R. 15. Hernandez A. 55. Lagos J. (G) 23. Martinez K. 31. Osorio H. 27. Pena K. 32. Ponce J. 3. Rodas Andrino G. J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Rochez J. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, Martinez G. ⚽,
45+2', Martinez G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Delgado E. ↓, Carrasco M. ↑,
49', Garcia R. 🟨,
64', Garcia F. 🟨,
65', Ramos J. ↓, Gonzalez O. ↑,
65', Gutierrez C. ↓, Ponce J. ↑,
69', Diaz S. ↓, Reyes D. ↑,
71', Padilla J. ↓, Pena K. ↑,
78', Rochez J. ↓, Aceituno M. ↑,
78', Carrasco M. ↓, Ramirez W. ↑,
78', Monico D. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
88', Alvarez K. 🟥,
90+5', Valladares C. 🟨,
90+5', Gomez A. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 9 and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real Sociedad Tocoa won 2.

Real Sociedad Tocoa is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lobos UPNFM has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lobos UPNFM could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Real Sociedad Tocoa will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Real Sociedad Tocoa won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 12:22 (average 0.8:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Sociedad Tocoa won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:10 (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad Tocoa
Honduras Liga Nacional
12.02.25	Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	1:4 ✺
02.02.25	CD Marathón - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1 ✺
29.01.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Olancho	2:2 ✺
26.01.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Real España	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLTTL
- Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional
13.02.25	Lobos UPNFM - Real España	3:4 ✺
06.02.25	Motagua - Lobos UPNFM	5:0 ✺
03.02.25	Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1 ✺
29.01.25	Juticalpa - Lobos UPNFM	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	Génesis PN - Lobos UPNFM	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
23.11.24	Lobos UPNFM - Real Sociedad Tocoa	2:1
18.09.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Lobos UPNFM	0:0
31.03.24	Lobos UPNFM - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:0
31.01.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Lobos UPNFM	2:1
30.09.23	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Lobos UPNFM	2:0
05.08.23	Lobos UPNFM - Real Sociedad Tocoa	2:0
05.03.23	Lobos UPNFM - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1

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