Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova (La Paz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Génesis PN		Lobos UPNFM

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.3	3
	2.08	3.3	3.24
	2.09	3.54	3.23	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.25
	2.04	3.24	3.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.15)	3.3 ↓ (3.36)	3.21 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Génesis PN
44%

Draw
27.6%

Lobos UPNFM
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

27%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

26%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Génesis PN has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Lobos UPNFM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Génesis PN than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Génesis PN - Lobos UPNFM Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Génesis will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Lobos UPNFM will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lobos UPNFM (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez D. (G) 32. Gabriel Araujo 15. Maldonado E. 7. Miranda J. 14. Mosquera J. 17. Nunez D. 27. Paz J. 30. Riascos J. 22. Sander R. 13. Tejeda A. 2. Vargas A.	12. Guity A. (G) 22. Ardon C. 4. Garcia J. 21. Guity E. 2. Lopez L. 8. Nunez J. 25. Onofre G. 27. Pena K. 7. Rochez C. 9. Rochez J. 3. Rodas Andrino G. J.
Substitutes
26. Arzu Zapata C. I. 12. Balanta R. A. (G) 25. Felix B. 20. Martinez S. 33. Melendez D. 8. Nieto J. 79. Palomo A. 75. Santos L. 23. Valencia Y.	59. Gradiz E. 30. Herrlein L. 55. Lagos J. (G) 26. Lopez B. 51. Martinez O. 10. Morales M. 11. Moreira R. 17. Padilla J. 16. Vasquez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Pena K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Castillo M. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
46', Guity E. ↓, Vasquez E. ↑,
54', Nunez D. 🟨,
58', 0 - 2, Rochez J. ⚽,
62', Vargas A. ↓, Arzu Zapata C. I. ↑,
62', Nunez D. ↓, Felix B. ↑,
70', Pena K. ↓, Moreira R. ↑,
70', Nunez J. 🟨,
75', Rodas Andrino G. J. 🟨,
80', Miranda J. ↓, Palomo A. ↑,
80', Sander R. ↓, Melendez D. ↑,
85', Garcia J. 🟨,
89', Rochez J. ↓, Lopez B. ↑,
90+1', Nunez J. ↓, Padilla J. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 11 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Génesis won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lobos UPNFM may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Génesis will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Génesis won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Génesis won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:3. (average 2.2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Genesis	8	3	2	3	10:6	4	11
9	UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7:12	-5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Génesis Policía Nacional
Honduras Liga Nacional
26.02.26	CD Marathón - Génesis PN	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Génesis PN - Platense	2:2 ✺
11.02.26	Génesis PN - Motagua	0:5 ✺
06.02.26	Juticalpa - Génesis PN	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Génesis PN - Choloma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WTLTT
- Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional
26.02.26	Lobos UPNFM - Platense	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Real España - Lobos UPNFM	4:3 ✺
12.02.26	Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Lobos UPNFM - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Olancho - Lobos UPNFM	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
27.09.25	Génesis PN - Lobos UPNFM	2:3
23.07.25	Lobos UPNFM - Génesis PN	2:1
12.03.25	Lobos UPNFM - Génesis PN	1:1
25.01.25	Génesis PN - Lobos UPNFM	4:0
20.10.24	Lobos UPNFM - Génesis PN	1:4
09.08.24	Génesis PN - Lobos UPNFM	3:0
28.04.24	Génesis PN - Lobos UPNFM	1:0

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