Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse (Choluteca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Lobos UPNFM		Victoria La Ceiba

	1	X	2
	2	3.15	3.35
	2.02	3.18	3.64
	1.69	3.74	4.62	Watch
	2	3	3.5
	2	3.26	3.8	Watch
	1.96	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.66)	3.24 ↓ (3.83)	3.75 ↓ (4.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lobos UPNFM
47.2%

Draw
28.3%

Victoria La Ceiba
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

24.2%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lobos UPNFM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lobos UPNFM's form might have worsened.

Victoria La Ceiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Victoria La Ceiba (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Victoria La Ceiba (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Guity A. (G) 13. Gutierrez C. 20. Lopez E. 2. Lopez L. 10. Morales M. 11. Moreira R. 8. Nunez J. 17. Padilla J. 27. Pena K. 3. Rodas Andrino G. J. 5. Zuniga A.	12. Perello M. (G) 5. Banegas A. 28. Barrios A. 3. Barrios O. 9. Blackburn R. 48. Card S. 20. Espinal M. 52. Hernandez A. 38. Hernandez D. 19. Lahera Y. 24. Sanchez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
17', 1 - 0, Pena K. ⚽,
32', 2 - 0, Nunez J. ⚽,
34', 2 - 1, Hernandez D. ⚽,
44', 2 - 2, Lahera Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Morales M. ↓, Herrlein L. ↑,
46', Lopez L. 🟨,
52', Nunez J. 🟨,
60', Barrios A. 🟨,
65', Pena K. ↓, Rochez J. ↑,
66', Nunez J. ↓, Ponce J. ↑,
67', Hernandez D. ↓, Matute C. ↑,
67', Card S. ↓, Sevilla L. ↑,
70', Blackburn R. 🟨,
82', Sanchez J. ↓, Portillo A. ↑,
85', Perello M. 🟨,
87', Espinal M. ↓, Cruz A. ↑,
88', Blackburn R. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
90+5', Zuniga A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lobos UPNFM won 2.

Victoria La Ceiba may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lobos UPNFM is seen as the favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Lobos UPNFM won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lobos UPNFM won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.4:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7:12	-5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional
07.02.26	Lobos UPNFM - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Olancho - Lobos UPNFM	1:1 ✺
29.01.26	Choloma - Lobos UPNFM	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Lobos UPNFM - Real España	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LTTTT
- Victoria La Ceiba
Honduras Liga Nacional
07.02.26	Motagua - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Victoria La Ceiba - CD Marathón	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Platense - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Victoria La Ceiba	Olimpia awarded ✺
02.12.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Choloma	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.6 TTT?W

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
25.10.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Lobos UPNFM	0:1
16.08.25	Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba	2:0
02.04.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Lobos UPNFM	0:0
03.02.25	Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1
02.11.24	Lobos UPNFM - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1
25.08.24	Victoria La Ceiba - Lobos UPNFM	2:1
19.04.24	Victoria La Ceiba - Lobos UPNFM	0:1

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