Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 31 March 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid (Bragança Paulista)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Red Bull Bragantino		Ceará

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	4.1
	2.05	3.2	3.8
	2	3.3	4
	2.17	3.25	3.56
	1.96	3.33	4.15	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.8
	1.96	3.38	4.37	Watch
	2	3.3	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.16)	3.27 ↑ (3.23)	3.97 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Bull Bragantino
47.1%

Draw
29%

Ceará
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

29.2%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

30%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Bull Bragantino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. RB Bragantino will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Ceará will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for RB Bragantino: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cleiton (C) 34. Hurtado A. 14. Pedro Henrique 2. Rodriguez G. 29. Juninho Capixaba 35. Matheus Fernandes 6. Gabriel 10. Jhon Jhon 17. Vinicinho 8. Eduardo Sasha 33. Laquintana I.	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 88. Fernando Sobral 20. Diego 10. Lucas Mugni 77. Fernandinho 9. Pedro Raul 27. Galeano A.
Substitutes
59. Athyrson 18. Borbas T. 39. Douglas Mendes 3. Eduardo Santos 7. Eric Ramires 5. Fabinho 31. Guilherme 22. Gustavo Neves 40. Lucao (G) 21. Lucas Barbosa 30. Mosquera H. 9. Pitta I.	11. Aylon 33. Eder 16. Fernando Miguel (G) 80. Guilherme Luiz 97. Lourenco 31. Lucas Lima 44. Marcos Victor 22. Martinez A. 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 2. Ramos R. 19. Romulo
Coaches
Fernando Seabra	Leo Conde

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Pedro Raul ⚽, Diego (A),
23', 0 - 2, Marllon ⚽, Lucas Mugni (A),
27', Pedro Raul 🟨,
33', Matheus Fernandes 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Laquintana I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
52', Fabiano 🟨,
63', Lucas Mugni ↓, Lourenco ↑,
63', Fernandinho ↓, Aylon ↑,
64', Laquintana I. ↓, Lucas Barbosa ↑,
67', Vinicinho ↓, Mosquera H. ↑,
68', Matheus Fernandes ↓, Eric Ramires ↑,
75', Galeano A. ↓, Romulo ↑,
75', Fernando Sobral ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
75', Gabriel ↓, Gustavo Neves ↑,
75', Jhon Jhon ↓, Borbas T. ↑,
81', Diego ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Eric Ramires ⚽, Lucas Barbosa (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches RB Bragantino won 2.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Ceará could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

RB Bragantino will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Nathan Mendes (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in RB Bragantino: Sant'Anna A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Bruno Tubarao (Muscle Injury) Luiz Otavio (Injury) Richard (Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches RB Bragantino won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 22:21 (average 1.4:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams RB Bragantino won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12:6 (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Bull Bragantino
Club Friendly
22.03.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.03.25	Red Bull Bragantino - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.25	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.02.25	Sousa - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Ponte Preta - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWLWW
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Bahia - Ceará	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
22.03.25	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.03.25	Ceará - Juazeirense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
15.03.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Ceará - Confiança	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
21.08.22	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	1:1
30.04.22	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1
17.10.21	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	2:2
01.07.21	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	0:0
17.01.21	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2
19.09.20	Red Bull Bragantino - Ceará	4:2
Brazilian Serie B
21.10.16	Ceará - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0

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