Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/64-finals

Date: 27 February 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio Antonio Mariz (Sousa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video


	Sousa		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.6	1.65
	5	3.25	1.67
	5.74	3.4	1.68
	5.56	3.38	1.7
	5	3.5	1.7
	5.22	3.68	1.66
	5	3.25	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.29 ↓ (8.37)	3.44 ↓ (4.35)	1.68 ↑ (1.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sousa
17.6%

Draw
27%

Red Bull Bragantino
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.2%

21.5%

67.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.7%

20.6%

70.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sousa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sousa's performance.

Red Bull Bragantino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Red Bull Bragantino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sousa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Red Bull Bragantino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Sousa - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Sousa will win (votes: 2 - 50%). RB Bragantino will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bruno Fuso (C) 9. Diego Ceara 16. Felipe Jacare 6. Fernando Ceara 5. Hebert 11. Ian Augusto 2. Iranilson 4. Marcelo 8. Pedro Dias 3. Uesles 23. Wellisson	1. Cleiton (C) 18. Borbas T. 3. Eduardo Santos 6. Gabriel 31. Guilherme 10. Jhon Jhon 33. Laquintana I. 8. Lucas Evangelista 14. Pedro Henrique 9. Pitta I. 2. Rodriguez G.
Substitutes
18. Bruno Matos 28. Ciro 7. Elielton 20. Estevan 13. Gustavinho 34. Gustavo Silva 21. Joao Rafael 12. Joao Vitor (G) 10. Luan Rodrigues 19. Matheusinho 15. Patrik 14. Wellington Nunes	59. Athyrson 53. Chumbinho 39. Douglas Mendes 7. Eric Ramires 11. Fernando 46. Henrique G. 40. Lucao (G) 35. Matheus Fernandes 30. Mosquera H. 17. Vinicinho 52. Vinicius Lago 50. Vitinho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Ian Augusto 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Laquintana I. ↓, Matheus Fernandes ↑,
46', Pitta I. ↓, Mosquera H. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Ian Augusto ⚽,
57', Eduardo Santos ↓, Vinicinho ↑,
61', Pedro Dias ↓, Patrik ↑,
71', Gabriel ↓, Fernando ↑,
74', Wellisson ↓, Luan Rodrigues ↑,
81', Bruno Fuso 🟨,
83', Mosquera H. 🟨,
86', Ian Augusto ↓, Wellington Nunes ↑,
87', Felipe Jacare ↓, Joao Rafael ↑,
90+1', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Athyrson ↑,
90+9', 1 - 1, Patrik (Own goal),
90+10', 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Diego Ceara (Pen),
1, Borbas T. (Pen),
2, Wellington Nunes (Pen),
2, Jhon Jhon (Pen),
3, Patrik (Pen),
3, Fernando (Pen),
4, Iranilson (Pen),
4, Vinicinho (Pen),
5, Luan Rodrigues (Pen),
5, Cleiton (Pen),

Preview

Sousa is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

RB Bragantino is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

RB Bragantino could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match RB Bragantino is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Sousa won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Sousa won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sousa
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
22.02.25	Sousa - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.02.25	CRB Maceio - Sousa	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
16.02.25	Treze - Sousa	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
11.02.25	Sousa - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
08.02.25	Sousa - Nacional de Patos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTLW
- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Ponte Preta - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2 ✺
20.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Mirassol	3:0 ✺
15.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - EC Noroeste	2:1 ✺
11.02.25	Botafogo SP - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
08.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
21.05.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Sousa	3:0
01.05.24	Sousa - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1

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