Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 15

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz


	Santos		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.3	3.3	3.1
	2.12	3.25	3.35
	2.21	3.45	3.57
	2.21	3.25	3.48	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.3
	2.2	3.37	3.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (2.05)	3.29 ↑ (3.15)	3.38 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
43.3%

Draw
28.7%

Red Bull Bragantino
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

29.3%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

28.5%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Red Bull Bragantino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Santos - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 4 - 50%). RB Bragantino will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santos: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diogenes (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 98. Frias A. 4. Lucas Verissimo 31. Escobar G. 5. Joao Schmidt 28. Oliva C. 49. Gabriel Bontempo 32. Rollheiser B. 10. Neymar (C) 22. Barreal A.	18. Tiago Volpi (G) 34. Hurtado A. 4. Alix Vinicius 16. Gustavo Marques 29. Juninho Capixaba 6. Gabriel (C) 15. Sosa I. 32. Herrera J. 21. Lucas Barbosa 30. Mosquera H. 9. Pitta I.
Substitutes
9. Gabriel Barbosa 26. Joao Ananias 79. Joao Lucio (G) 47. Mateus Xavier 30. Miguelito 21. Moises 81. Pierri S. 38. Rafael Gonzaga 7. Robinho Jr. 11. Rony 15. Willian Arao	46. Breno 1. Cleiton (G) 8. Eduardo Sasha 7. Eric Ramires 11. Fernando Santos 22. Gustavo Neves 57. Marcelinho 14. Pedro Henrique 20. Rodriguinho 23. Sant'Anna A. 12. Vanderlan 17. Vinicinho
Coaches
Cuca	Vagner Mancini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Lucas Barbosa 🟨,
16', Pitta I. 🟨,
45+1', Gabriel 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 0, Neymar ⚽, Gabriel Bontempo (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Herrera J. ↓, Eduardo Sasha ↑,
46', Sosa I. ↓, Eric Ramires ↑,
67', Gabriel ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
70', Oliva C. ↓, Willian Arao ↑,
70', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Rony ↑,
75', Alix Vinicius 🟨,
76', 2 - 0, Frias A. ⚽,
78', Hurtado A. ↓, Sant'Anna A. ↑,
79', Neymar 🟨,
81', Neymar ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
82', Mosquera H. ↓, Fernando Santos ↑,
86', Barreal A. ↓, Moises ↑,
87', Rollheiser B. ↓, Miguelito ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Santos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Santos has had a series of away games.

Santos might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Santos: Diaz L. (Inactive) Gabriel Brazao (Yellow Cards) Gabriel Menino (Hamstring Injury) Gustavo Henrique (Inactive) Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury)

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Davi Gomes (Knee Injury) Eduardo Santos (Hamstring Injury) Fabricio (Ankle Injury) Rodriguez G. (Knee Injury) Sant'Anna A. (Hamstring Injury) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Santos: Escobar G. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.5:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	1	37

Last Results with these Odds

Santos - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.04%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Copa Sudamericana
05.05.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Santos	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	San Lorenzo - Santos	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	Bahia - Santos	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TTTTT
- Red Bull Bragantino
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	Blooming - Red Bull Bragantino	0:6 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Chapecoense - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - River Plate	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
28.09.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Santos	2:2
27.04.25	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.25	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0
27.03.24	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	3:1
03.03.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Santos	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
19.10.23	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	1:3

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