Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 12

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Max, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, TNT, UOL Play, Vivo Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ponte Preta		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	3.3	2.9	2.4	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.36	Watch
	3.44	2.95	2.47
	3.33	2.82	2.44	Watch
	3	3	2.3
	3.11	3.13	2.27	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (3.09)	2.91 ↓ (2.92)	2.37 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
29%

Draw
31.8%

Red Bull Bragantino
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

31.8%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

31.9%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Red Bull Bragantino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Ponte Preta - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 4. Saimon 18. Emerson Santos 6. Sergio Raphael 2. Maguinho 55. Leo Oliveira 25. Lucas Candido 15. Artur 37. Serginho 7. Jean Dias 29. Everton Brito	1. Cleiton (G) 3. Eduardo Santos 14. Pedro Henrique 2. Rodriguez G. 29. Juninho Capixaba 35. Matheus Fernandes 8. Lucas Evangelista 33. Laquintana I. 10. Jhon Jhon 17. Vinicinho 9. Pitta I.
Substitutes
77. Bruno Lopes 26. Concha V. 90. Darnlei 8. Dudu 19. Gustavo Lopes 20. Joao Gabriel 27. Luiz Felipe 28. Pacheco 1. Pedro Rocha (G) 17. Pedro Vilhena 11. Renato 31. Victor Andrade	18. Borbas T. 53. Chumbinho 39. Douglas Mendes 7. Eric Ramires 11. Fernando 31. Guilherme 22. Gustavo Neves 46. Henrique G. 40. Lucao (G) 30. Mosquera H. 52. Vinicius Lago 50. Vitinho
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Fernando Seabra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Jhon Jhon ⚽, Pitta I. (A),
7', Artur ↓, Joao Gabriel ↑,
25', Vinicinho 🟨,
30', 0 - 2, Lucas Evangelista (Pen),
38', Sergio Raphael ↓, Bruno Lopes ↑,
45+1', Lucas Evangelista 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Serginho ↓, Pedro Vilhena ↑,
50', Matheus Fernandes 🟨,
56', Laquintana I. ↓, Gustavo Neves ↑,
56', Matheus Fernandes ↓, Eric Ramires ↑,
63', Maguinho 🟨,
63', Lucas Candido 🟨,
71', Vinicinho ↓, Fernando ↑,
75', Maguinho ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
75', Saimon ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
86', Juninho Capixaba ↓, Guilherme ↑,
86', Pitta I. ↓, Borbas T. ↑,
87', Gustavo Neves 🟨,
90', Guilherme 🟨,
90+6', Eduardo Santos 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponte Preta won 1.

Ponte Preta in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

RB Bragantino is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ponte Preta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

RB Bragantino will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Ponte Preta won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 17:18 (average 0.9:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Ponte Preta won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:6 (average 0.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.02.25	São Paulo - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
15.02.25	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
12.02.25	Mirassol - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	2:0 ✺
05.02.25	EC Noroeste - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.3 WTWWW
- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
20.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Mirassol	3:0 ✺
15.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - EC Noroeste	2:1 ✺
11.02.25	Botafogo SP - Red Bull Bragantino	1:0 ✺
08.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
04.02.25	Internacional de Limeira - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
14.02.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Ponte Preta	1:0
Brazilian Copa Paulista
20.08.23	Ponte Preta - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1
15.07.23	Red Bull Bragantino - Ponte Preta	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
16.05.21	Red Bull Bragantino - Ponte Preta	1:2 penalties
19.04.21	Red Bull Bragantino - Ponte Preta	2:0
09.03.20	Ponte Preta - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2
Brazilian Serie B
19.10.19	Ponte Preta - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1

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