Match Info

Paulista - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Cicero De Souza Marques (Bragança Paulista)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Red Bull Bragantino		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.8	4.5	Watch
	1.95	3.2	4
	1.92	3.05	4.25
	1.97	3.1	4.73
	1.91	3.13	4.53	Watch
	1.91	3	3.9
	1.93	2.83	4.4	Watch
	1.96	3.14	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.92)	3.03 ↑ (2.91)	4.33 ↓ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Bull Bragantino
47.9%

Draw
30.6%

Grêmio Novorizontino
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

31.7%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

33.4%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Bull Bragantino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. RB Bragantino will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Bragantino (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cleiton (G) 23. Sant'Anna A. 16. Gustavo Marques 14. Pedro Henrique 29. Juninho Capixaba 6. Gabriel 28. Yuri Alves 21. Lucas Barbosa 22. Gustavo Neves 30. Mosquera H. (C) 9. Pitta I.	93. Jordi (G) 24. Lora J. 66. Maykon Jesus 14. Eduardo Brock (C) 19. Diego Galo 25. Dantas 17. Matheus Bianqui 18. Leo Naldi 50. Juninho 15. Tavinho 30. Nicolas Careca
Substitutes
51. Caue Nascimento 27. Davi Gomes 3. Eduardo Santos 7. Eric Ramires 5. Fabinho 11. Fernando Santos 32. Herrera J. 34. Hurtado A. 57. Marcelinho 15. Sosa I. 18. Tiago Volpi (G) 17. Vinicinho	90. Caio Dantas 20. Castrillon N. 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 40. Jardiel 21. Kauan Alemao 23. Kaue Almeida dos Santos J. 6. Luis Oyama 77. Mayk 8. Ortiz C. 10. Romulo 16. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Vagner Mancini	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Pitta I. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lora J. ↓, Luis Oyama ↑,
46', Nicolas Careca ↓, Kauan Alemao ↑,
46', Diego Galo ↓, Castrillon N. ↑,
59', Yuri Alves ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
64', 2 - 0, Gustavo Marques ⚽, Pitta I. (A),
76', Sant'Anna A. ↓, Hurtado A. ↑,
76', Lucas Barbosa ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
76', Leo Naldi ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
82', Pitta I. 🟨,
83', Pitta I. ↓, Fernando Santos ↑,
83', Juninho Capixaba ↓, Caue Nascimento ↑,
83', Juninho ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
90+1', 3 - 0, Cleiton (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Dantas 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Novorizontino is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Bragantino won 2.

Recent performances by RB Bragantino have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Novorizontino is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, RB Bragantino is a strong favorite.

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Alix Vinicius (Injury) Eduardo Sasha (Inactive) Fabricio (Inactive) Rodriguez G. (Knee Injury) Vanderlan (Inactive)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Marlon (Inactive) Patrick (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in RB Bragantino: Rodriguinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Castrillon N. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, RB Bragantino won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Bragantino won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Velo Clube - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Coritiba - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LTWTW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
20.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	4:0 ✺
17.01.26	EC Primavera - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2
07.02.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2
20.02.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Red Bull Bragantino	0:3
30.01.20	Grêmio Novorizontino - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0
22.02.19	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
25.02.18	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1

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