Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Salzburg)

Referee: Fotias V. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360
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France	Canal+ Live 3
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Sport 24 Extra


	Red Bull Salzburg		Porto

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.8	1.75
	4.55	4.05	1.75
	4.58	3.9	1.78
	4.32	3.67	1.79	Watch
	4.61	3.89	1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.51 ↑ (3.13)	3.86 ↑ (3.62)	1.77 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Bull Salzburg
21.2%

Draw
24.8%

Porto
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

26.5%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

26.7%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Bull Salzburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Red Bull Salzburg's form might have worsened.

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Porto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Red Bull Salzburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Porto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.7%	3.7%	92.5%

Red Bull Salzburg - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 106 users predict this event. Salzburg will win (votes: 4 - 3.8%). Porto will win (votes: 98 - 92.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 3.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 87.5% – 97.5%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.81) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -1 - Porto (2.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Salzburg (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (50 of 54 users predict this - 92.59%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 57 Selected Experts predict this event. Salzburg (votes: 1 - 1.8%). Porto (votes: 52 - 91.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schlager A. (G) 22. Lainer S. 23. Gadou J. 2. Rasmussen J. 3. Terzic A. 49. Yeo M. K. 18. Bidstrup M. (C) 5. Diabate S. 27. Alajbegovic K. 20. Baidoo E. 21. Ratkov P.	99. Costa D. (C) 13. Rosario P. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 12. Zaidu 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 10. Veiga G. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 17. Sainz B.
Substitutes
43. Aguilar E. 15. Diambou M. 29. Gourna-Douath L. 92. Hamzic S. (G) 8. Kitano S. 14. Kjaergaard M. 13. Kratzig F. 9. Onisiwo K. 37. Trummer T. 11. Vertessen Y. 52. Zawieschitzky C. (G) 48. Zikovic R.	47. Alarcon A. 73. Bras G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 20. Costa A. 24. Costa J. (G) 52. Fernandes M. 27. Gul D. 86. Mora R. 74. Moura F. 21. Prpic D. 92. Teixeira J. 7. William Gomes
Coaches
Letsch T.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Yeo M. K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Pepê ↓, William Gomes ↑,
53', Zaidu ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
53', Veiga G. ↓, Moura F. ↑,
65', Ratkov P. ↓, Vertessen Y. ↑,
65', Baidoo E. ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
65', Yeo M. K. ↓, Onisiwo K. ↑,
65', Alajbegovic K. ↓, Kjaergaard M. ↑,
66', Varela A. ↓, Mora R. ↑,
77', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
80', Rasmussen J. 🟨,
83', Kjaergaard M. 🟨,
86', Vertessen Y. 🟨,
90+2', Bidstrup M. ↓, Gourna-Douath L. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 1, William Gomes ⚽, Fernandes M. (A),
90+4', William Gomes 🟨,

Preview

In recent matches, Salzburg has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Porto is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Porto could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Salzburg: Bischoff C. (Red Card) Chase A. (Inactive) Kawamura T. (Knee Injury) Konate K. (Knee Injury) Mellberg J. (Knee Injury) Omoregie J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Schuster J. (Illness) Sulzbacher V. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Injury) de Jong L. (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Bull Salzburg
Austrian Bundesliga
20.09.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Wolfsberger - Red Bull Salzburg	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Blau-Weiss Linz	2:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
27.08.25	Dornbirn - Red Bull Salzburg	1:3 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
23.08.25	Red Bull Salzburg - LASK Linz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTWW
- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
19.09.25	Rio Ave - Porto	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Porto - Nacional	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Porto - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
18.08.25	Gil Vicente - Porto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWWW

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