Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Austria	DAZN
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Premium 4, SportKlub 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Porto		Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.17	6.25	15	Watch
	1.18	7	14
	1.17	6.9	14.5	Watch
	1.17	7.93	18.94
	1.18	7.44	12.61	Watch
	1.21	6.6	14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↑ (1.16)	7.02 ↑ (6.8)	14.84 ↑ (14.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
80.2%

Draw
13.5%

Nacional
6.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79.7%

13.6%

6.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

Porto - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 20 - 90.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 78.9% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Porto (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Porto (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Porto (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 11 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 13. Rosario P. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 86. Mora R. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 17. Sainz B.	37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 28. Liziero 6. Matheus Dias 15. Labidi C. 11. Paulinho Boia 9. Ramirez J. 99. Pablo Ruan
Substitutes
47. Alarcon A. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 6. Eustaquio S. 27. Gul D. 72. Miranda A. 18. Perez N. 21. Prpic D. 10. Veiga G. 12. Zaidu	19. Joao L. 1. Kaique Pereira (G) 26. Silva J. 22. Soares F. 18. Sousa A. 4. Ulisses 24. Vallier L. 30. Watts 7. Witi
Coaches
Farioli F.	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', Aurelio J. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Samu (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Varela A. ↓, Perez N. ↑,
56', Mora R. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
56', Moura F. ↓, Zaidu ↑,
61', Perez N. ↓, Eustaquio S. ↑,
63', Pablo Ruan ↓, Witi ↑,
66', Margarido T. 🟨,
70', Labidi C. 🟨,
74', Liziero ↓, Soares F. ↑,
74', Labidi C. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
76', Veiga G. 🟨,
79', Samu 🟨,
84', Paulinho Boia ↓, Joao L. ↑,
86', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
90+1', Ze Vitor 🟨,
90+9', Leo Santos 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 4.

Porto has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Nacional's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Porto is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Fernandes M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M. (Knee Injury) Deivison (Inactive) Fernandes I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Porto: Pepê (Eye injury) William Gomes (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Porto won 16 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 50:11. (average 2.5:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 23:2. (average 2.9:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
30.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Porto - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
18.08.25	Gil Vicente - Porto	0:2 ✺
11.08.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.25	Porto - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WWWWW
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
30.08.25	Casa Pia - Nacional	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Nacional - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
17.08.25	Rio Ave - Nacional	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Nacional - Gil Vicente	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.25	Marítimo - Nacional	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
17.05.25	Porto - Nacional	3:0
12.01.25	Nacional - Porto	2:0
18.04.21	Nacional - Porto	0:1
Taça de Portugal
12.01.21	Nacional - Porto	2:4 ET
Liga Portugal
20.12.20	Porto - Nacional	2:0
12.05.19	Nacional - Porto	0:4
07.01.19	Porto - Nacional	3:1

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