Match Info

Taça de Portugal - Semi-finals

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	RTP Africa, RTP Africa, RTP Africa, ZAP
Argentina	FOX Sports
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Israel	Sport 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Portugal	RTP 1, RTPi, RTP International, Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
World	Triller TV+


	Sporting Lisbon		Porto

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.1	4.75	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.1
	1.92	3.05	4.45
	1.92	3.15	4.96
	2.14	2.76	4.27	Watch
	1.85	2.8	4.2
	1.95	3.12	4.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.09)	3.01 ↓ (3.08)	4.33 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
47.3%

Draw
31.1%

Porto
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

29.9%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

28.8%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.5%	14.8%	3.7%

Sporting Lisbon - Porto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (1.98) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -0.25 - Sporting (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH +1 - Porto (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (22 of 27 users predict this - 81.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.83% – 96.13%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 8 - 80%). Porto (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 5. Morita H. 31. Luis Guilherme 17. Trincao 10. Catamo G. 97. Suarez L.	99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 13. Rosario P. 74. Moura F. 22. Varela A. 42. Fofana S. 7. William Gomes 86. Mora R. 11. Pepê 29. Moffi T.
Substitutes
23. Braganca D. 15. Faye S. 8. Goncalves P. 90. Nel R. 72. Quaresma E. 11. Santos N. 52. Simoes J. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)	14. Claudio Ramos (G) 24. Costa J. (G) 52. Fernandes M. 8. Froholdt V. 27. Gul D. 4. Kiwior J. 72. Miranda A. 77. Pietuszewski O. 21. Prpic D. 10. Veiga G. 12. Zaidu
Coaches
Borges R.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Catamo G. 🟨,
44', Bednarek J. ↓, Kiwior J. ↑,
45+2', Costa A. 🟨,
45+3', Hjulmand M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Costa A. ↓, Froholdt V. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Suarez L. (Penalty Awarded),
63', Mora R. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
63', Moffi T. ↓, Gul D. ↑,
64', Varela A. 🟨,
66', Luis Guilherme ↓, Goncalves P. ↑,
66', Morita H. ↓, Simoes J. ↑,
73', Fofana S. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
85', Catamo G. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
85', Trincao ↓, Santos N. ↑,
90+2', Veiga G. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 2.

Sporting has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Porto is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sporting will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sporting: Debast Z. (Injury) Kochorashvili G. (Inactive) Mangas R. (Inactive) Quenda G. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Samu (Knee Injury) Thiago Silva (Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Ioannidis F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Porto: Fernandes M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sporting won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:30. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
27.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Estoril Praia	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Moreirense - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
15.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
05.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	3:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWTW
- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
27.02.26	Porto - Arouca	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Porto - Rio Ave	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Nacional - Porto	0:1 ✺
09.02.26	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
02.02.26	Casa Pia - Porto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
09.02.26	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1
30.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:2
07.02.25	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
07.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:0
Liga Portugal
31.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	2:0
Portuguese Super Cup
03.08.24	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	3:4 ET
Taça de Portugal
26.05.24	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ET

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