Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 5

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Ishin Me-Life Stadium (Yamaguchi)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Renofa Yamaguchi		Sagan Tosu

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.08	Watch
	3.41	3.3	2.14
	3.69	3.57	1.93	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2
	3.41	3.24	2.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↑ (2.55)	3.3 ↓ (3.31)	2.03 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Renofa Yamaguchi
27.2%

Draw
27.7%

Sagan Tosu
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

28.2%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Renofa Yamaguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Renofa Yamaguchi's form might have worsened.

Sagan Tosu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sagan Tosu's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Renofa Yamaguchi - Sagan Tosu Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Renofa Yamaguchi will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Tosu will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Renofa Yamaguchi (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Iida M. (G) 5. Yoshioka K. 14. Shimodo R. 3. Oiwa K. 2. Ozawa R. 6. Wakasa Y. 40. Naruoka H. 17. Tanabe K. 19. Yamamoto S. 7. Misawa N. 34. Furukawa D.	1. Izumori R. (G) 5. Nagasawa S. 33. Ogawa S. 76. Isotani S. 7. Sakamoto K. 6. Sakurai T. 2. Matsumoto N. 22. Yuba K. 88. Shiohama R. 16. Nishizawa K. 15. Sakai N.
Substitutes
21. Choi Hyung-Chan (G) 98. Firmino A. 25. Fujimori S. 11. Fujioka K. 28. Kobayashi S. 27. Mizuguchi H. 36. Nishido H. 20. Suenaga T.	26. Ando T. 18. Hyon R. 9. Jo 3. Kamiyama K. 12. Matsubara S. (G) 14. Sakaiya K. 19. Suzuki D. 29. Tanaka Y. 20. Toyoda A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Shiohama R. ↓, Hyon R. ↑,
50', 1 - 0, Misawa N. ⚽,
53', 2 - 0, Tanabe K. ⚽,
57', Sakai N. ↓, Suzuki D. ↑,
57', Sakurai T. ↓, Toyoda A. ↑,
68', Yamamoto S. ↓, Fujioka K. ↑,
68', Misawa N. ↓, Kobayashi S. ↑,
68', Yuba K. ↓, Sakaiya K. ↑,
78', Nishizawa K. ↓, Tanaka Y. ↑,
82', Furukawa D. ↓, Nishido H. ↑,
89', Ozawa R. ↓, Fujimori S. ↑,
90', Yoshioka K. ↓, Mizuguchi H. ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ))

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Renofa Yamaguchi won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Renofa Yamaguchi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Renofa Yamaguchi - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.55%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Renofa Yamaguchi
Japan J2 J3 League
28.02.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Gainare Tottori	0:1 penalties ✺
22.02.26	Kagoshima United - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Reilac Shiga	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.11.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Omiya Ardija	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWLW
- Sagan Tosu
Japan J2 J3 League
28.02.26	Sagan Tosu - Kagoshima United	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Sagan Tosu	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Sagan Tosu - Roasso Kumamoto	2:1 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Ryūkyū - Sagan Tosu	2:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.11.25	Sagan Tosu - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
05.10.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Sagan Tosu	1:2
19.04.25	Sagan Tosu - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:2
Japan Emperors Cup
21.08.24	Sagan Tosu - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:2

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