Match Info

J2 League - Round 38

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Ishin Me-Life Stadium (Yamaguchi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Renofa Yamaguchi		Omiya Ardija

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.1	Watch
	2.98	3.25	2.22	Watch
	3.31	3.49	2.25
	2.89	3.49	2.29	Watch
				Watch
	3.14	3.33	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.92)	3.37 ↑ (3.25)	2.2 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Renofa Yamaguchi
30%

Draw
27.7%

Omiya Ardija
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

28.3%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

27.3%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Renofa Yamaguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Omiya Ardija has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Renofa Yamaguchi than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	42.9%	57.1%

Renofa Yamaguchi - Omiya Ardija Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Omiya will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Omiya (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marsman N. (G) 4. Matsuda K. 5. Yoshioka K. 76. Isotani S. 27. Ozawa R. 29. Wakasa Y. 17. Tanabe K. 55. Okaniwa S. 30. Okuyama Y. 45. Yamamoto O. 9. Arita R.	21. Kato Y. (G) 37. Sekiguchi K. 34. Murakami Y. 4. Ichihara R. 13. Iyoha O. 7. Kojima M. 30. Arthur Feitoza 18. Tsukui T. 10. Toyokawa Y. 29. Caprini 90. Sunday O.
Substitutes
34. Furukawa D. 15. Itakura T. 20. Kawano K. 7. Misawa N. 13. Miyayoshi T. 36. Nishido H. 8. Noyori K. 14. Shimodo R. 26. Taguchi J. (G)	42. Fujii K. 44. Fukui K. 9. Gonzalez F. 14. Izumi T. 15. Nakayama K. 20. Shimoguchi W. 23. Sugimoto K. 45. Tsuboi Y. (G) 41. Yachida T.
Coaches
Nakayama G.	Miyazawa Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Toyokawa Y. ↓, Yachida T. ↑,
18', 0 - 1, Sekiguchi K. ⚽, Caprini (A),
42', 1 - 1, Yamamoto O. ⚽, Okuyama Y. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Okaniwa S. ↓, Nishido H. ↑,
46', Okuyama Y. ↓, Furukawa D. ↑,
48', Furukawa D. 🟨,
54', 2 - 1, Ozawa R. ⚽, Wakasa Y. (A),
58', 2 - 2, Caprini ⚽, Sunday O. (A),
67', Sunday O. ↓, Sugimoto K. ↑,
70', Arita R. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
75', Wakasa Y. ↓, Noyori K. ↑,
80', Nishido H. ↓, Misawa N. ↑,
81', 3 - 2, Yamamoto O. ⚽, Ozawa R. (A),
83', Yachida T. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
83', Caprini ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
90+5', Furukawa D. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: )).

Omiya is Qualified for J2 League (Promotion )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Renofa Yamaguchi won 2.

Recent performances by Renofa Yamaguchi have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Omiya is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Renofa Yamaguchi won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Renofa Yamaguchi won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Renofa Yamaguchi - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 31.45%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Omiya Ardija - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.28%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Renofa Yamaguchi
Japan J2 League
23.11.25	Iwaki - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Renofa Yamaguchi - Kataller Toyama	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Imabari - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLWWT
- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 League
23.11.25	Omiya Ardija - Tokushima Vortis	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Mito HollyHock - Omiya Ardija	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Omiya Ardija - Blaublitz Akita	5:0 ✺
26.10.25	Montedio Yamagata - Omiya Ardija	2:2 ✺
18.10.25	Omiya Ardija - Fujieda MYFC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
08.03.25	Omiya Ardija - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:1
07.10.23	Omiya Ardija - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:1
18.02.23	Renofa Yamaguchi - Omiya Ardija	1:0
09.10.22	Omiya Ardija - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:1
03.04.22	Renofa Yamaguchi - Omiya Ardija	1:0
07.11.21	Omiya Ardija - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:2
27.06.21	Renofa Yamaguchi - Omiya Ardija	0:1

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