Match Info

BRAZIL: Pernambucano - Round 6

Date: 2 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Pernambuco (São Lourenço da Mata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Retrô Brasil		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.8	2.85
	2.45	2.8	2.85
	2.47	3.03	2.98
	2.42	3.01	2.91
	2.5	2.75	2.9
	2.42	3.05	2.95
	2.45	2.8	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.28)	2.89 ↓ (2.98)	2.9 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Retrô Brasil
37.2%

Draw
31.4%

Náutico Capibaribe
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

30.3%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

32.5%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Retrô Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Retrô Brasil, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Retrô Brasil - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Fabian Volpi (G) 7. Fabinho 11. Felipe Augusto 10. Fernandinho (C) 2. Gedeilson 20. Gledson 6. Gustavo Salomao 27. Jonas 9. Mascote 8. Radsley 15. Walce	1. Wellerson R. (G) 18. Auremir 80. Bruno Mezenga (C) 4. Fagner Alemao 23. Igor Fernandes 12. Leo Coltro 8. Marco Antonio 17. Marcos Ytalo 34. Otusanya O. 20. Patrick Allan 22. Wenderson
Substitutes
19. Danillo 24. da Silva Santos D. L. (G) 17. Diego Guerra 25. Ericson 18. Franco R. 29. Junior Fialho 28. Lucas Grafite 5. Romulo 22. Samuel Granada 16. Savio	35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 11. Dudu 10. Geovane 7. Helio Borges 5. Igor Pereira 27. Kauan Maranhao 15. Kayon 32. Leo (G) 14. Odivan 3. Rayan 38. Samuel 25. Sousa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Fagner Alemao ↓, Rayan ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Otusanya O. ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
52', Igor Fernandes 🟨,
58', Wenderson 🟨,
62', 1 - 0, Mascote ⚽,
68', Marco Antonio ↓, Kauan Maranhao ↑,
68', Wenderson ↓, Sousa ↑,
76', Leo Coltro 🟨,
78', Radsley 🟨,
78', Felipe Augusto ↓, Ericson ↑,
78', Mascote ↓, Junior Fialho ↑,
86', Gledson ↓, Savio ↑,
87', Fernandinho ↓, Lucas Grafite ↑,
87', Radsley ↓, Franco R. ↑,
90+2', Fabian Volpi 🟨,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Retrô Brasil
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
28.01.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Retrô Brasil	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	Retrô Brasil - Jaguar	1:1 ✺
18.01.25	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Retrô Brasil - Afogados da Ingazeira	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Retrô Brasil - Maguary	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTWL
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
30.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Maguary	2:0 ✺
25.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
19.01.25	Central SC - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
15.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Jaguar	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
17.03.24	Retrô Brasil - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 penalties
10.03.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	1:0
18.02.24	Retrô Brasil - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
25.01.23	Retrô Brasil - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
30.04.22	Retrô Brasil - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 penalties
21.04.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	0:1
09.02.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	1:2

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