Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 2
South-america	ViX Latin America
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball, TyC Sports Internacional


	River Plate		Atlético Tucumán

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	6.5	Watch
	1.47	4.2	6.75
	1.58	3.65	6.2
	1.6	3.89	6.54
	1.59	3.86	6.1	Watch
	1.57	3.5	5.75
	1.59	3.74	5.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.44)	3.81 ↓ (4.32)	6.24 ↓ (7.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate
60.2%

Draw
24.7%

Atlético Tucumán
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

21.8%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.7%

20.8%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that River Plate's form might have worsened.

Atlético Tucumán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for River Plate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Tucumán than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

River Plate - Atlético Tucumán Predictions

Users Predictions: River Plate will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Beltran S. (G) 16. Bustos F. 20. Pezzella G. (C) 13. Rivero L. 21. Acuna M. 6. Moreno A. 8. Meza M. 26. Galvan T. 38. Subiabre I. 32. Ruberto A. 11. Colidio F.	1. Ingolotti L. (G) 3. Villa M. 26. Ferreira Namandu C. D. 20. Suso G. 21. Galvan I. 19. Vega L. 10. Franco N. 11. Tesuri R. (C) 31. Godoy L. 23. Lamendola N. 9. Diaz L.
Substitutes
33. Centurion E. (G) 35. Freitas J. 36. Gimenez U. 34. Giuliano Galoppo 24. Meza J. 29. Montiel G. 19. Paez K. 25. Pereyra L. 10. Quintero J. 7. Salas M. 44. Silva L. 18. Vina M.	30. Brondo M. 28. Compagnucci G. 24. Di Placido L. 5. Dominguez J. 25. Durso T. (G) 6. Ferrari G. 8. Ham E. 32. Infante J. 45. Ortiz K. 34. Roman L. 18. Ruiz R. 36. Vallejo L.
Coaches
Coudet E.	Falcioni J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Tesuri R. ⚽, Villa M. (A),
42', Vega L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Subiabre I. ↓, Paez K. ↑,
46', Ruberto A. ↓, Salas M. ↑,
46', Meza M. ↓, Pereyra L. ↑,
53', Godoy L. 🟨,
65', Galvan T. ↓, Quintero J. ↑,
68', Suso G. ↓, Vallejo L. ↑,
80', Tesuri R. ↓, Compagnucci G. ↑,
88', Paez K. 🟨,
90+1', Diaz L. ↓, Brondo M. ↑,
90+1', Lamendola N. ↓, Ortiz K. ↑,
90+3', Bustos F. ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
90+7', Acuna M. 🟨,

Preview

Federation decision.

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 13).

River Plate is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 3.

River Plate is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Atlético Tucumán's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético Tucumán may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, River Plate is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that River Plate will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.4:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate
Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - River Plate	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.04.26	River Plate - Aldosivi	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	River Plate - Boca Juniors	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	River Plate - Carabobo	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.04.26	Racing - River Plate	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLWW
- Atlético Tucumán
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.04.26	Atlético Tucumán - Banfield	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Argentinos Juniors - Atlético Tucumán	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Atlético Tucumán - Tigre	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Rosario Central - Atlético Tucumán	2:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
25.03.26	Atlético Tucumán - Sportivo Barracas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.09.25	Atlético Tucumán - River Plate	2:0
09.03.25	River Plate - Atlético Tucumán	1:0
13.09.24	River Plate - Atlético Tucumán	4:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
14.02.24	Atlético Tucumán - River Plate	0:0
21.09.23	River Plate - Atlético Tucumán	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.04.23	Atlético Tucumán - River Plate	1:1
11.06.22	River Plate - Atlético Tucumán	0:0

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