The best margin for this event is -0.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
River Plate 74.5%
Draw 17.6%
Independiente Santa Fe 7.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.3%
29.1%
26.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.5%
27.9%
27.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
River Plate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+30.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in River Plate's performance.
Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Santa Fe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (-32%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with River Plate that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+19.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Santa Fe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
85.7%
14.3%
0%
River Plate - Independiente Santa Fe Predictions
Users Predictions:
River Plate will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%). Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
41. Beltran S. (G) 29. Montiel G. 28. Martinez Quarta L. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 21. Acuna M. 6. Moreno A. 50. Andrada T. 26. Galvan T. 10. Correa A. 23. Almada T. 9. Driussi S.
12. Asprilla W. (G) 13. Palacios H. 18. Olivera E. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 32. Mafla C. 16. Torres D. 6. Toscano Bassa K. D. 77. Obrian J. 19. Bustos N. 10. Zapata A. 11. Rodallega H. (C)
Substitutes
19. Borre R. 33. Centurion E. (G) 15. Fausto Vera 35. Freitas J. 31. Gonzalez F. 43. Lucero V. 24. Meza J. 25. Pereyra L. 44. Silva L.
24. Angulo J. 43. Caicedo J. 30. Contreras E. (G) 40. Cuesta M. 9. Fagundez F. 17. Lovera M. 3. Moreno V. 14. Palacios L. 39. Portocarrero C. 4. Puerta M. 7. Torres J. 42. Zuniga J.
Coaches
Coudet E.
Repetto P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Toscano Bassa K. D. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 1 - 0, Driussi S. ⚽, Montiel G. (A),
58', Zapata A. ↓, Fagundez F. ↑,
58', Obrian J. ↓, Palacios L. ↑,
58', Bustos N. ↓, Lovera M. ↑,
62', Galvan T. ↓, Fausto Vera ↑,
62', Driussi S. ↓, Borre R. ↑,
71', Montiel G. 🟨,
76', Andrada T. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
76', Montiel G. ↓, Meza J. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Fagundez F. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Moreno A. ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
82', Acuna M. 🟨,
83', Mafla C. 🟨,
87', Rodallega H. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
Penalties (7 - 8)
1, Almada T. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Lovera M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Correa A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Torres D. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Otamendi N. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Olivera E. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Freitas J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Palacios L. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Borre R. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Fagundez F. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Martinez Quarta L. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Torres J. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Fausto Vera (Penalty Awarded),
7, Scarpeta Silgado I. R. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Gonzalez F. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Angulo J. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Acuna M. (Penalty Awarded),
9, Palacios H. (Penalty Awarded),
10, Meza J. (Penalty Awarded),
10, Mafla C. (Penalty Awarded),
11, Beltran S. (Penalty Awarded),
11, Asprilla W. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
Second leg.
River Plate is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Santa Fe is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Santa Fe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
River Plate could have a small edge in this match.
The teams have not played against each other recently.
Last Results with these Odds
River Plate - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.28%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.
Independiente Santa Fe - the odds 3.55 are the expected chance of winning is 26.61%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.