Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	Disney+
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV3
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Onefootball, TyC Sports Internacional


	River Plate		Sarmiento de Junín

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.9	8.5	Watch
	1.48	3.9	7.7
	1.5	4.13	7.89
	1.47	4.11	7.81	Watch
	1.44	3.8	7
	1.45	3.92	8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.36)	3.96 ↓ (4.65)	7.82 ↓ (9.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate
64.2%

Draw
23.8%

Sarmiento de Junín
12%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.4%

20.3%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.3%

19.2%

9.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that River Plate's form might have worsened.

Sarmiento de Junín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for River Plate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarmiento de Junín than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

River Plate - Sarmiento de Junín Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - River Plate (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: River Plate will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Beltran S. (G) 29. Montiel G. 28. Martinez Quarta L. (C) 13. Rivero L. 21. Acuna M. 6. Moreno A. 15. Fausto Vera 19. Paez K. 26. Galvan T. 38. Subiabre I. 9. Driussi S.	1. Burrai J. (G) 29. Santamaria T. 34. Seyral A. 2. Insaurralde J. (C) 3. Suarez L. 5. Garcia M. 19. Contrera J. 25. Villalba C. 15. Zabala C. 33. Diaz G. 27. Marabel J.
Substitutes
16. Bustos F. 22. Castano K. 33. Centurion E. (G) 17. Diaz P. 99. Freitas J. 36. Gimenez U. 34. Giuliano Galoppo 39. Lencina S. 10. Quintero J. 32. Ruberto A. 7. Salas M. 18. Vina M.	35. Alaggia F. 26. Arismendi Y. 6. Arturia G. 12. Ayala T. (G) 4. Cabrera J. M. 9. Diego Churin 11. Gomez J. 32. Gonzalez A. 44. Orihuela R. 77. Pasquini N. 10. Renteria J. 8. Salle S.
Coaches
Coudet E.	Sava F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Diaz G. 🟨,
26', Martinez Quarta L. 🟨,
34', Seyral A. 🟨,
39', Diaz G. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Driussi S. ⚽,
45+2', Zabala C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Paez K. ↓, Freitas J. ↑,
60', Marabel J. ↓, Diego Churin ↑,
61', Galvan T. ↓, Quintero J. ↑,
67', Santamaria T. ↓, Cabrera J. M. ↑,
67', Contrera J. ↓, Salle S. ↑,
67', Villalba C. ↓, Arismendi Y. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Subiabre I. ⚽, Moreno A. (A),
72', Moreno A. ↓, Castano K. ↑,
73', Garcia M. 🟨,
81', Driussi S. ↓, Salas M. ↑,
81', Martinez Quarta L. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
88', Zabala C. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 2.

River Plate is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sarmiento is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sarmiento may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, River Plate is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:5. (average 2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.03.26	Huracán Buenos Aires - River Plate	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Independiente Rivadavia - River Plate	1:1 ✺
26.02.26	River Plate - Banfield	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
17.02.26	River Plate - Ciudad de Bolívar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTWLW
- Sarmiento de Junín
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.03.26	Sarmiento de Junín - Racing	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	Sarmiento de Junín - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	1:0 ✺
26.02.26	Sarmiento de Junín - Unión Santa Fe	1:3 ✺
20.02.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Sarmiento de Junín	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Huracán Buenos Aires - Sarmiento de Junín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.10.25	River Plate - Sarmiento de Junín	0:1
05.04.25	Sarmiento de Junín - River Plate	1:1
28.07.24	River Plate - Sarmiento de Junín	1:0
19.03.23	Sarmiento de Junín - River Plate	0:2
31.07.22	River Plate - Sarmiento de Junín	1:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.04.22	Sarmiento de Junín - River Plate	0:7
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.08.21	Sarmiento de Junín - River Plate	1:2

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