Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini (Mendoza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Israel	Sport 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Independiente Rivadavia		River Plate

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.57	Watch
	3	3.1	2.4
	3	3.1	2.45	Watch
	3.17	3.14	2.51
	3.11	3.13	2.43	Watch
	3	2.9	2.4
	3.09	3.05	2.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↓ (3.14)	3.06 ↓ (3.16)	2.45 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Rivadavia
30.8%

Draw
30.8%

River Plate
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

29.9%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

30.1%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Rivadavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	36.4%	54.5%

Independiente Rivadavia - River Plate Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Independiente R will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). River Plate will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for River Plate: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente R (votes: 1 - 20%). River Plate (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Independiente R (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Independiente R (2.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Independiente R (2.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente R (votes: 6 - 60%). River Plate (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Bolcato N. (G) 13. Osella A. 40. Villalba I. 2. Costa L. 42. Studer S. 3. Elordi J. M. 11. Rios G. 25. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 10. Fernandez M. 43. Sartori F. 22. Villa S.	41. Beltran S. (G) 29. Montiel G. 28. Martinez Quarta L. (C) 13. Rivero L. 21. Acuna M. 6. Moreno A. 15. Fausto Vera 26. Galvan T. 38. Subiabre I. 9. Driussi S. 35. Freitas J.
Substitutes
9. Arce A. 19. Atencio R. 36. Bonifacio E. 5. Bottari T. 8. Bucca L. . Crego D. 17. Dadin B. 14. Gomez L. 12. Macagno R. (G) 34. Moreyra S. 7. Ramis V. 32. Vazquez K. A.	16. Bustos F. 22. Castano K. 11. Colidio F. 17. Diaz P. 31. Gonzalez F. 30. Jaime C. 42. Jaroszewicz F. (G) 39. Lencina S. 19. Paez K. 32. Ruberto A. 7. Salas M. 18. Vina M.
Coaches
Berti A.	Gallardo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Rios G. ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Montiel G. ⚽, Subiabre I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Martinez Quarta L. 🟨,
63', Rios G. ↓, Crego D. ↑,
63', Costa L. ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
66', Subiabre I. 🟨,
72', Subiabre I. ↓, Jaime C. ↑,
76', Freitas J. 🟨,
78', Sartori F. ↓, Arce A. ↑,
78', Osella A. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
83', Driussi S. ↓, Castano K. ↑,
84', Fernandez M. ↓, Moreyra S. ↑,
90+1', Moreno A. ↓, Colidio F. ↑,
90+1', Freitas J. ↓, Salas M. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Independiente R is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

River Plate's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

River Plate may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Independiente R: Arce A. (Broken collarbone)

There will not play in River Plate: Armani F. (Inactive) Centurion E. (Inactive) Costantini G. (Knee Injury) Meza M. (Foot Injury) Pezzella G. (Knee Injury) Portillo J. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Independiente R won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente R won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.02.26	Racing - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Independiente	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Belgrano	0:1 ✺
09.02.26	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Independiente Rivadavia	0:1 ✺
03.02.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Sarmiento de Junín	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TWLWW
- River Plate
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.02.26	River Plate - Banfield	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Vélez Sársfield - River Plate	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
17.02.26	River Plate - Ciudad de Bolívar	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.02.26	Argentinos Juniors - River Plate	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	River Plate - Tigre	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Argentina
24.10.25	Independiente Rivadavia - River Plate	1:0 penalties
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.11.24	Independiente Rivadavia - River Plate	2:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
06.03.24	River Plate - Independiente Rivadavia	2:0

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