Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Germany	Sport 1+
Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport


	River Plate Montevideo		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.5	8.5	Watch
	1.31	5.25	8.75
	1.3	5.5	9	Watch
	1.31	5.62	9.59
	1.31	5.64	9.62
	1.25	5.5	9
	1.31	5.55	9.2	Watch
	1.31	5.2	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.35)	5.47 ↑ (4.6)	8.98 ↑ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
72.3%

Draw
17.2%

Libertad Asuncion
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

20.1%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.9%

18.5%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with River Plate Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

River Plate Montevideo - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: River Plate Montevideo will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armani F. (G) 27. Sant'Anna A. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 17. Diaz P. 20. Casco M. 26. Fernandez N. 23. Villagra R. 29. Aliendro R. 19. Echeverri C. 9. Miguel Borja 11. Colidio F.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 14. Cardozo L. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 26. Caballero H. 18. Franco I. 21. Sanabria L. 8. Merlini B. 17. Espinoza M. 24. Santa C. R.
Substitutes
21. Barco E. 2. Boselli S. 33. Centurion E. (G) 13. Diaz E. 4. Fonseca N. 15. Herrera A. 5. Kranevitter M. 6. Martinez D. 30. Mastantuono F. 8. Palavecino A. 31. Simon S. 36. Solari P.	9. Aguilar G. 20. Bareiro A. 6. Campuzano A. 36. Cardozo Lucena A. 7. Cardozo O. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 27. Jacquet M. 19. Lezcano R. 22. Martinez H. 10. Melgarejo L. 11. Mendieta W. 33. Piris I.
Coaches
Demichelis M.	Galeano A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Miguel Borja ⚽, Casco M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Espinoza M. ↓, Melgarejo L. ↑,
65', Diaz P. 🟨,
68', Caballero H. 🟨,
70', Echeverri C. ↓, Barco E. ↑,
70', Fernandez N. ↓, Solari P. ↑,
71', Santa C. R. ↓, Cardozo O. ↑,
71', Franco I. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
75', Bareiro A. 🟨,
81', Aliendro R. ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,
81', Colidio F. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
81', Merlini B. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
81', Caballero H. ↓, Campuzano A. ↑,
84', 2 - 0, Miguel Borja ⚽, Solari P. (A),
86', Villagra R. ↓, Kranevitter M. ↑,

Preview

River Plate is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches River Plate won 1.

Recent matches River Plate is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Libertad is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Libertad could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently River Plate have a series of guest games.

In this match River Plate is certain favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches River Plate won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 18-23.

Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.05.24	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.24	Nacional Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.05.24	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:3 ✺
29.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TTLLW
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
10.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sol de América	4:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.24	Deportivo Táchira - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:3 ✺
28.04.24	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	1:2
Paraguayan Primera Division
07.11.20	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	3:1
22.08.20	River Plate Montevideo - Libertad Asuncion	1:2
07.02.20	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
23.11.19	River Plate Montevideo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2
18.08.19	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
20.04.19	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	2:1

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