Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 24 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV5
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Libertad Asuncion		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.75	3.4	1.93
	3.7	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.9	3.58	1.99
	3.88	3.59	1.98
	3.5	3.4	1.91
	3.82	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.5	3.35	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.72 ↓ (3.95)	3.5 ↓ (3.59)	1.96 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
25.3%

Draw
26.8%

River Plate Montevideo
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

26.1%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23%

26.9%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 25%). River Plate will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 14. Cardozo L. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 18. Franco I. 21. Sanabria L. 26. Caballero H. 8. Merlini B. 7. Cardozo O. (C) 10. Melgarejo L.	1. Armani F. (C) 15. Herrera A. 14. Gonzalez Pirez L. 17. Diaz P. 13. Diaz E. 29. Aliendro R. 23. Villagra R. 36. Solari P. 19. Echeverri C. 21. Barco E. 9. Miguel Borja
Substitutes
9. Aguilar G. 6. Campuzano A. 36. Cardozo Lucena A. 17. Espinoza M. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 19. Lezcano R. 22. Martinez H. 11. Mendieta W. 33. Piris I. 24. Santa C. R. 13. Silva A. 23. Vera E.	2. Boselli S. 20. Casco M. 33. Centurion E. (G) 11. Colidio F. 26. Fernandez N. 4. Fonseca N. 5. Kranevitter M. 10. Lanzini M. 30. Mastantuono F. 8. Palavecino A. 31. Simon S. 22. Zabala D.
Coaches
Galeano A.	Demichelis M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', Melgarejo L. ↓, Espinoza M. ↑,
34', 0 - 1, Solari P. ⚽, Aliendro R. (A),
40', 1 - 1, Espinoza M. ⚽, Sanabria L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Echeverri C. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
57', Villagra R. ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,
57', Caballero H. ↓, Campuzano A. ↑,
58', Cardozo O. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
59', Aliendro R. 🟨,
62', Aliendro R. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
63', Barco E. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
72', Sanabria L. ↓, Martinez H. ↑,
72', Franco I. ↓, Vera E. ↑,
74', Fonseca N. 🟨,
74', Merlini B. 🟨,
77', Solari P. ↓, Colidio F. ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Mastantuono F. ⚽, Lanzini M. (A),
82', Colidio F. 🟨,
84', Ramirez I. 🟨,
88', Cardozo L. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Libertad won 5.

Libertad in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches River Plate is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Libertad could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

River Plate will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Libertad won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 22-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	2:0 ✺
17.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Táchira	3:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
06.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTWWW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.04.24	River Plate Montevideo - Progreso	2:2 ✺
14.04.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.04.24	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.04.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.04.24	River Plate Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
07.11.20	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	3:1
22.08.20	River Plate Montevideo - Libertad Asuncion	1:2
07.02.20	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
23.11.19	River Plate Montevideo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2
18.08.19	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
20.04.19	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
16.02.19	River Plate Montevideo - Libertad Asuncion	1:1

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