Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Referee: Motta S. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	River Plate Montevideo		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.1	2.38	Watch
	2.98	3.05	2.35
	3.08	3.15	2.52
	2.98	2.99	2.50	Watch
	2.94	3.17	2.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↓ (3.5)	3.09 ↓ (3.25)	2.44 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
31.4%

Draw
30.2%

Cerro Largo
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.1%

28.1%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

25.6%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in River Plate Montevideo's performance.

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cerro Largo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Cerro Largo will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Frascarelli D. (G) 31. Olmos T. 23. Crespo E. 2. Perez F. 13. Almeida C. (C) 20. Lemos L. 15. Jourdan E. 10. Vera A. 14. De Leon F. 17. Escobar M. 19. Pollero R.	27. Santilli G. (G) 14. Correa L. 19. Brasil M. 21. Gianoli M. 6. Bonifazi F. 5. Di Pippa A. 11. Anasco M. 15. Assis S. 25. Perez A. 18. Gonzalez C. 9. Rossi F.
Substitutes
22. Alfonso M. 32. Chavero J. 25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 9. Correa T. 3. Gissi D. 18. Lopez I. 21. Mier M. 6. Moreira M. 7. Quintana J. 33. Triver F.	23. Almeida E. . Amaral L. 26. Cuello E. 20. Delgado F. 4. Ferrares B. 7. Gallard J. 8. Garcia M. 30. Hernandez B. 29. Perez I. 1. Pintado F. (G)
Coaches
Salazar R.	Nunez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Crespo E. ↓, Gissi D. ↑,
43', Perez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Escobar M. ↓, Correa T. ↑,
46', Perez A. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Rossi F. ⚽,
55', Rossi F. ↓, Perez I. ↑,
64', Lemos L. 🟨,
67', Almeida C. 🟨,
68', Assis S. 🟨,
71', Assis S. ↓, Cuello E. ↑,
80', Jourdan E. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
83', Cuello E. 🟨,
86', Gianoli M. 🟨,
87', 1 - 1, Pollero R. ⚽,
90+2', Anasco M. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
90+2', Brasil M. ↓, Ferrares B. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 0.

River Plate has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cerro Largo is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

River Plate may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:29. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.6:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.10.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
03.10.25	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	River Plate Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	2:3 ✺
14.09.25	River Plate Montevideo - Progreso	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLTLT
- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.25	Cerro Largo - Boston River	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
30.06.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	2:2
18.04.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
09.11.24	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
05.05.24	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:3
19.08.23	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo	0:0
04.02.23	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
Club Friendly
26.01.23	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:2

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