Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 8

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Egao Kenko Stadium (Kumamoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Roasso Kumamoto		Kagoshima United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.68	3.1	2.4	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.56
	2.64	3.28	2.59	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.45
	2.62	3.04	2.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.85)	3.18 ↓ (3.39)	2.5 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roasso Kumamoto
34.9%

Draw
28.6%

Kagoshima United
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

27.4%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

26.6%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roasso Kumamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roasso Kumamoto than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Roasso Kumamoto - Kagoshima United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Kumamoto will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Kagoshima United will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sato S. (G) 4. Yakushida R. 5. Kobayashi K. 8. Kamimura S. 6. Iwashita W. 27. Negishi K. 24. Ri T. 39. Aoki S. 14. Ishihara O. 41. Omoto Y. 18. Handai M.	21. Kawakami K. (G) 44. Aoki Y. 3. Sugii H. 2. Saga R. 16. Muramatsu K. 19. Inaba S. 5. Yamada Y. 14. Yoshio K. 9. Arita R. 18. Kawamura K. 20. Endo M.
Substitutes
11. Bae Jeong-Min 7. Fujii K. 13. Iihoshi A. 10. Katori Y. 22. Matsuda E. 15. Mishima S. 25. Nasu K. 23. Sato Y. (G) 26. Toda S.	35. Egawa G. 8. Fujimura K. 11. Fukuda M. 26. Kawashima K. 73. Kumakura T. (G) 55. Nakayama K. 10. Take S. 36. Yonezawa R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Iwashita W. 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Arita R. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Endo M. ↓, Fukuda M. ↑,
63', Yakushida R. ↓, Matsuda E. ↑,
63', Negishi K. ↓, Nasu K. ↑,
63', Omoto Y. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
76', Kawamura K. ↓, Yonezawa R. ↑,
76', Handai M. ↓, Bae Jeong-Min ↑,
76', Ishihara O. ↓, Katori Y. ↑,
76', Arita R. ↓, Nakayama K. ↑,
76', Yoshio K. ↓, Kawashima K. ↑,
83', Saga R. ↓, Fujimura K. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kumamoto won 1.

Recent performances by Kumamoto have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kagoshima United is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kagoshima United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Kumamoto won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kumamoto won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 2.3:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Roasso Kumamoto - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.58%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roasso Kumamoto
Japan J2 J3 League
21.03.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Gainare Tottori	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Reilac Shiga - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Oita Trinita	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Giravanz Kitakyushu	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLWW
- Kagoshima United
Japan J2 J3 League
22.03.26	Gainare Tottori - Kagoshima United	0:1 penalties ✺
15.03.26	Kagoshima United - Reilac Shiga	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Oita Trinita - Kagoshima United	1:0 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Sagan Tosu - Kagoshima United	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Kagoshima United - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
15.09.24	Kagoshima United - Roasso Kumamoto	0:2
03.05.24	Roasso Kumamoto - Kagoshima United	2:2
Japan J3 League
31.10.21	Kagoshima United - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0
20.03.21	Roasso Kumamoto - Kagoshima United	2:2
07.11.20	Kagoshima United - Roasso Kumamoto	4:1
27.06.20	Roasso Kumamoto - Kagoshima United	3:2

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