Match Info

J3 League - Round 9

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Heiwado HATO Stadium (Hikone) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	19:00	DAZN Japan


	Reilac Shiga		Roasso Kumamoto

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.20	2.10
	3.15	3.20	2.02	Watch
	3.32	3.35	2.15
	2.79	3.32	2.44	Watch
	3.20	3.20	2.12
	3.13	3.54	2.14	Watch
	3.05	3.25	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.65)	3.29 ↑ (3.15)	2.16 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Reilac Shiga
29.7%

Draw
27.8%

Roasso Kumamoto
42.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.6%

28.2%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

28.3%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reilac Shiga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Roasso Kumamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reilac Shiga than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roasso Kumamoto than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Reilac Shiga - Roasso Kumamoto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ito K. (G) 14. Shiraishi T. 37. Nabeta A. 2. Hirai S. 13. Koizumi R. 11. Miyake K. 8. Nakamura K. 24. Romero F. 30. Yamaguchi R. 29. Hino T. 10. Hitomi T.	1. Sato S. (G) 4. Yakushida R. 24. Ri T. 5. Kobayashi K. 41. Omoto Y. 13. Iihoshi A. 37. Ozawa H. 29. Mishina N. 25. Nasu K. 9. Bae Jeong-Min 10. Katori Y.
Substitutes
18. Akiyama S. 77. Hojo S. 4. Ide K. 7. Kubo E. 66. Matsubara K. 41. Motoyoshi Y. (G) 9. Sakamoto I. 48. Tanida S. 26. Tsunoda S.	7. Fujii K. 39. Ishida R. 14. Ishihara O. 15. Mishima S. 19. Miyata I. 17. Nagai S. 3. Onishi R. 23. Sato Y. (G) 11. Watanabe R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Nasu K. 🟨,
33', Romero F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Romero F. ↓, Kubo E. ↑,
46', Yamaguchi R. ↓, Hojo S. ↑,
61', Shiraishi T. 🟨,
63', Hino T. ↓, Matsubara K. ↑,
72', Bae Jeong-Min ↓, Miyata I. ↑,
72', Katori Y. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
72', Omoto Y. ↓, Ishida R. ↑,
72', Hitomi T. ↓, Sakamoto I. ↑,
78', Miyake K. ↓, Akiyama S. ↑,
80', Ozawa H. ↓, Nagai S. ↑,
86', Nasu K. ↓, Onishi R. ↑,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 9th and 7th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Kumamoto may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Reilac Shiga has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2 (averaging 0.5:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Reilac Shiga against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Kumamoto	12	5	5	2	13:6	7	20
13	Reilac Shiga	12	4	2	6	16:19	-3	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Reilac Shiga FC
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Nara Club - Reilac Shiga	4:1 ✺
20.09.26	Reilac Shiga - Ryūkyū	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Reilac Shiga - Kagoshima United	1:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Reilac Shiga - Tokyo Verdy	0:1 ✺
Japan J3 League
05.09.26	Kamatamare Sanuki - Reilac Shiga	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLLW
- Roasso Kumamoto
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Kawasaki Frontale	0:1 ✺
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Roasso Kumamoto	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Fukushima United - Roasso Kumamoto	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Nara Club	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
03.05.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Reilac Shiga	2:0
08.03.26	Reilac Shiga - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0

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