Match Info

J2 League - Round 38

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Egao Kenko Stadium (Kumamoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Roasso Kumamoto		Ventforet Kofu

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.25	3.95	Watch
	1.99	3.33	4.29
	1.95	3.49	3.69	Watch
	1.84	3.22	4.08	Watch
	1.86	3.2	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.96)	3.29 ↓ (3.35)	4.09 ↑ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roasso Kumamoto
49.1%

Draw
28.2%

Ventforet Kofu
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

27.6%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

24.2%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roasso Kumamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Ventforet Kofu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roasso Kumamoto than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roasso Kumamoto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ventforet Kofu than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ventforet Kofu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Roasso Kumamoto - Ventforet Kofu Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Kumamoto will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Kofu will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kofu (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Kumamoto (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kumamoto (votes: 1 - 50%). Kofu (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Sato Y. (G) 25. Kobayashi K. 4. Hakamata Y. 24. Ri T. 21. Toyoda A. 8. Kamimura S. 6. Iwashita W. 17. Fujii K. 14. Shiohama R. 28. Kumashiro K. 16. Matsuoka R.	1. Kawata K. (G) 21. Renato Augusto 3. Son T. 5. Ichinose T. 7. Araki S. 20. Endo H. 26. Sato K. 24. Sato K. 10. Torikai Y. 14. Tanaka Y. 44. Naito Y.
Substitutes
5. Abe K. 11. Bae Jeong-Min 13. Iihoshi A. 2. Kuroki K. 15. Mishima S. 9. Omoto Y. 20. Osaki S. 1. Sato S. (G) 7. Takemoto Y.	97. Higashi J. (G) 25. Hiratsuka Y. 2. Inoue M. 18. Kashiwa Y. 22. Koide Y. 77. Matheus Leiria 9. Mitsuhira K. 29. Oshima K. 48. Val Soares
Coaches
Oki T.	Otsuka S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Sato K. ↓, Hiratsuka Y. ↑,
62', Matsuoka R. ↓, Bae Jeong-Min ↑,
64', Bae Jeong-Min 🟨,
73', Tanaka Y. ↓, Oshima K. ↑,
73', Torikai Y. ↓, Mitsuhira K. ↑,
74', Hakamata Y. 🟨,
85', Fujii K. ↓, Takemoto Y. ↑,
85', Endo H. ↓, Val Soares ↑,
86', Naito Y. ↓, Matheus Leiria ↑,
90+1', Kumashiro K. ↓, Osaki S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kumamoto won 2.

Kumamoto has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Kofu has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Kumamoto is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Kumamoto won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:18. (average 1.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Kumamoto won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:8. (average 1.8:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roasso Kumamoto
Japan J2 League
23.11.25	Ehime - Roasso Kumamoto	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Vegalta Sendai - Roasso Kumamoto	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Renofa Yamaguchi	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Oita Trinita	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Montedio Yamagata - Roasso Kumamoto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLT
- Ventforet Kofu
Japan J2 League
23.11.25	Ventforet Kofu - Kataller Toyama	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Tokushima Vortis - Ventforet Kofu	4:1 ✺
02.11.25	Ventforet Kofu - Mito HollyHock	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Fujieda MYFC - Ventforet Kofu	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Ventforet Kofu	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
15.06.25	Ventforet Kofu - Roasso Kumamoto	1:1
25.09.24	Ventforet Kofu - Roasso Kumamoto	2:4
14.04.24	Roasso Kumamoto - Ventforet Kofu	3:3
03.11.23	Ventforet Kofu - Roasso Kumamoto	2:0
07.05.23	Roasso Kumamoto - Ventforet Kofu	2:0
13.08.22	Ventforet Kofu - Roasso Kumamoto	2:2
28.05.22	Roasso Kumamoto - Ventforet Kofu	1:1

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