Match Info

Date: 1 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)


	Rochdale		Doncaster Rovers

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.3	3
	2.3	3.4	2.87
	2.3	3.3	3
	2.3	3.35	2.9
	2.37	3.51	3.04
	2.3	3.3	3
	2.38	3.5	3.05	Watch
	2.32	3.4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.16)	3.38 ↑ (3.07)	2.97 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
40.4%

Draw
27.9%

Doncaster Rovers
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

30.1%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

28.9%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Doncaster Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Doncaster Rovers than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Doncaster Rovers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	38.9%	38.9%

Rochdale - Doncaster Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Rochdale will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Doncaster will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Doncaster: 16.4% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Rochdale has the most likely position - 24 (11.64%), has project points - 48, has currently - 5, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Doncaster has the most likely position - 5 (8.8%), has project points - 74, has currently - 17, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (34%), has a chance of promoted (29%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

This event has small quality 10, importance 34, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Rochdale will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 16-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Rochdale won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
24.09.22	Colchester United - Rochdale	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Rochdale - Liverpool U21	1:0 ✺
English League Two
17.09.22	Northampton Town - Rochdale	3:0 ✺
13.09.22	Rochdale - Leyton Orient	0:1 ✺
03.09.22	Carlisle United - Rochdale	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWLLT
- Doncaster Rovers
English League Two
24.09.22	Doncaster Rovers - Crawley Town	4:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Lincoln City - Doncaster Rovers	1:2 ✺
English League Two
17.09.22	Doncaster Rovers - Swindon Town	0:1 ✺
13.09.22	Barrow - Doncaster Rovers	2:0 ✺
03.09.22	Doncaster Rovers - Mansfield Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
01.05.21	Rochdale - Doncaster Rovers	1:2
19.01.21	Doncaster Rovers - Rochdale	1:0
08.02.20	Doncaster Rovers - Rochdale	1:1
10.08.19	Rochdale - Doncaster Rovers	1:0
01.01.19	Doncaster Rovers - Rochdale	5:0
13.10.18	Rochdale - Doncaster Rovers	2:3
English FA Cup
06.01.18	Doncaster Rovers - Rochdale	0:1

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