Match Info

National League - Round 12

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Carlisle United		Rochdale

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.2
	2.12	3.45	3.1
	2.16	3.57	3.26
	3.63	3.68	1.89	Watch
	2.11	3.4	3.19
	2.04	3.5	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2)	3.48 ↑ (3.4)	2.99 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
40.6%

Draw
27.4%

Rochdale
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

26.7%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

28.4%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rochdale, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Carlisle United - Rochdale Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rochdale (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Breeze G. (G) 29. Armstrong L. 5. Feeney M. 20. Gilliead A. 3. Harper C. 22. Lafayette R. 10. Linney R. 37. Macadam H. 26. Mugabi B. 4. Thomas T. (C) 8. Whelan C.	1. Whatmuff O. (G) 14. Adebayo-Rowling T. 33. Beckwith S. 30. Berkoe K. 9. Dieseruvwe E. 4. East R. 6. Ebanks-Landell E. (C) 8. Gilmour H. 2. Gordon K. 21. McBride C. 10. Rodney D.
Substitutes
2. Davies A. 18. Ellis J. 24. Grant J. 9. Kelly G. 25. Lewis H. (G) 11. Luamba J. 16. Wearne S.	7. Allarakhia T. 12. Amantchi L. 18. Barlow A. 19. Burger J. 27. Humbles L. 22. Moss D. 16. Pettit C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Dieseruvwe E. ⚽, Beckwith S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Macadam H. ↓, Ellis J. ↑,
46', Williams J. ↓, Luamba J. ↑,
56', 0 - 2, Dieseruvwe E. ⚽,
58', Mugabi B. 🟨,
60', Mugabi B. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
61', Armstrong L. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
61', Whelan C. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
61', Adebayo-Rowling T. 🟨,
69', Linney R. 🟨,
74', Adebayo-Rowling T. ↓, Moss D. ↑,
78', Berkoe K. ↓, Allarakhia T. ↑,
78', Rodney D. ↓, Barlow A. ↑,
81', Moss D. 🟨,
86', McBride C. ↓, Pettit C. ↑,
86', Dieseruvwe E. ↓, Amantchi L. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 2.

Carlisle is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Rochdale is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Carlisle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Carlisle might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlisle won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
23.09.25	York City - Carlisle United	5:0 ✺
20.09.25	Altrincham - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Carlisle United - Aldershot Town	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Carlisle United - Truro City	3:0 ✺
03.09.25	Brackley Town - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWWW
- Rochdale AFC
English National League
23.09.25	Rochdale - Solihull Moors	4:1 ✺
English National League Cup
16.09.25	Rochdale - Blackburn Rovers U21	3:2 ✺
English National League
13.09.25	Truro City - Rochdale	0:1 ✺
06.09.25	Rochdale - Braintree Town	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Wealdstone - Rochdale	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
27.07.24	Rochdale - Carlisle United	2:1
English League Two
28.01.23	Rochdale - Carlisle United	0:1
03.09.22	Carlisle United - Rochdale	3:3
29.03.22	Rochdale - Carlisle United	2:0
01.03.22	Carlisle United - Rochdale	2:0
English League Cup
27.08.19	Rochdale - Carlisle United	2:1
English FA Cup
03.12.16	Carlisle United - Rochdale	0:2

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