Match Info

Date: 17 September 2022, Saturday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Purkiss S. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Rochdale

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.75
	1.77	3.5	4.6
	1.78	3.4	4.7
	1.76	3.45	4.5
	1.82	3.55	4.89
	1.78	3.4	4.6
	1.83	3.64	4.65	Watch
	1.77	3.5	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.72)	3.49 ↓ (3.55)	4.66 ↓ (4.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
52.7%

Draw
27%

Rochdale
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

26.2%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

25.5%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.2%	7.4%	7.4%

Northampton Town - Rochdale Predictions

Users Predictions: Northampton Town will win (23 of 27 users predict this - 85.19%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.79% – 98.59%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs) and 24 in the zone Relegation).

Northampton has the most likely position - 2 (11.8%), has project points - 78, has currently - 17, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (32%), has a chance of promoted (42%), has a small chance of win league (11%).

Rochdale has the most likely position - 24 (14.62%), has project points - 47, has currently - 2, has a chance of relegated (27%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 10, importance 39, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Northampton won 0.

Recent matches Northampton is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Rochdale is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Northampton is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Northampton won 1 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 13-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Northampton won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League Two
13.09.22	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	0:2 ✺
03.09.22	Northampton Town - Barrow	3:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Ipswich Town - Northampton Town	6:0 ✺
English League Two
27.08.22	Northampton Town - Doncaster Rovers	0:1 ✺
20.08.22	Crewe Alexandra - Northampton Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLLT
- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
13.09.22	Rochdale - Leyton Orient	0:1 ✺
03.09.22	Carlisle United - Rochdale	3:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Accrington Stanley - Rochdale	4:3 penalties ✺
English League Two
27.08.22	Rochdale - Crawley Town	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.08.22	Sheffield Wednesday - Rochdale	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
26.02.22	Rochdale - Northampton Town	1:0
21.08.21	Northampton Town - Rochdale	1:3
English League One
23.02.21	Northampton Town - Rochdale	0:0
24.11.20	Rochdale - Northampton Town	1:1
03.02.18	Northampton Town - Rochdale	0:1
17.10.17	Rochdale - Northampton Town	2:2
01.04.17	Rochdale - Northampton Town	1:1

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