Match Info

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 - Round 26

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Rodina Moscow 3		Arsenal 2 Tula

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.4	3.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 (2.01)	3.4 ↓ (4.14)	3.46 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rodina Moscow 3
46%

Draw
27.2%

Arsenal 2 Tula
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

23.1%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

23.1%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rodina Moscow 3 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Arsenal 2 Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodina Moscow 3 than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal 2 Tula than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Rodina Moscow 3 - Arsenal 2 Tula Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Morozov N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 8th and 14th).

Rodina 3 has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Arsenal 2 Tula has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Rodina 3 holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Rodina 3 has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:4 (averaging 1:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Rodina 3 against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Rodina Moscow 3	26	12	4	10	50:41	9	40
14	Arsenal Tula 2	26	2	10	14	20:47	-27	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rodina Moscow 3
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
26.09.26	Strogino Moskva - Rodina Moscow 3	2:5 ✺
19.09.26	Rodina Moscow 3 - SKA Khabarovsk 2	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Shumbrat Saransk - Rodina Moscow 3	2:3 ✺
05.09.26	Rodina Moscow 3 - Spartak Tambov	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Avangard Kursk - Rodina Moscow 3	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 WWWLW
- Arsenal 2 Tula
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
27.09.26	Arsenal 2 Tula - Metallurg Lipetsk	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Zenit Penza - Arsenal 2 Tula	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Arsenal 2 Tula - Saturn Ramenskoye	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Arsenal 2 Tula - Strogino Moskva	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	SKA Khabarovsk 2 - Arsenal 2 Tula	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
18.10.25	Arsenal 2 Tula - Rodina Moscow 3	3:0
28.06.25	Rodina Moscow 3 - Arsenal 2 Tula	2:1

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