Match Info

Serie A - Round 3

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport Football
Albania	20:45	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	15:45	Disney+
Asia	—	Q Football Asia
Australia	04:45	beIN Sports 3
Austria	20:45	DAZN, Laola1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Premium 2
Brazil	15:45	Disney+
Bulgaria	21:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	14:45	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	20:45	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	20:45	DAZN, TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	21:45	DAZN, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	20:45	DAZN France
Germany	20:45	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Greece	21:45	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hungary	20:45	Match 4
Israel	21:45	Sport 1
Italy	20:45	DAZN Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	ART Sport 1
Malaysia	02:45	Astro Football
Malta	20:45	TSN Malta 3
Mexico	12:45	Disney+
Netherlands	20:45	Ziggo Sport
North Macedonia	20:45	Arena Premium 1
Peru	13:45	Disney+
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Extra 4
Romania	21:45	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	21:45	MATCH! Futbol 1
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	20:45	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 1
Spain	20:45	Movistar Plus+
Sweden	20:45	DAZN, TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	21:45	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	19:45	DAZN
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	Paramount+, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+


	Roma		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.80	5.25
	1.65	4.00	5.00
	1.62	3.80	5.25	Watch
	1.70	4.10	5.40
	1.68	4.14	5.14	Watch
	1.67	3.85	5.40
	1.73	3.91	5.14
	1.65	3.90	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.93)	3.94 ↑ (3.46)	5.2 ↑ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
57.3%

Draw
24.3%

Atalanta
18.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.4%

27.6%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

27.7%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roma's performance.

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	12.1%	6.9%

Roma - Atalanta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Roma (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Roma (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Roma will win (47 of 58 users predict this - 81.03%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.94% – 91.12%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Roma will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Atalanta (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 22. Hermoso M. 77. Lulli E. 4. Cristante B. (C) 17. Kone M. 43. Wesley Franca 86. Mora R. 21. Dybala P. 14. Malen D.	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 16. Bellanova R. 3. Kossounou O. 42. Scalvini G. 23. Kolasinac S. 10. Samardzic L. 70. Gaetano G. 13. Ederson (C) 17. De Ketelaere C. 9. Scamacca G. 99. Elmas E.
Substitutes
68. Arena A. 26. Balerdi L. 9. Castro S. 70. De Marzi G. (G) 15. De Roon M. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 3. Koulierakis K. 20. Molina N. 61. Pisilli N. 2. Rensch D. 18. Soule M.	47. Bernasconi L. 19. Kessie F. 31. Kristensen T. 90. Krstovic N. 40. Obric R. 8. Pasalic M. 22. Pompei T. (G) 18. Raspadori G. 11. Rowe J. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 59. Zalewski N. 77. Zappacosta D.
Coaches
Gasperini G.	Sarri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Gasperini G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Ederson ⚽,
54', Lulli E. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
54', Mora R. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
62', Mancini G. ↓, Ghilardi D. ↑,
63', Malen D. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
66', Elmas E. ↓, Zalewski N. ↑,
66', Samardzic L. ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,
67', Ndicka E. ↓, Balerdi L. ↑,
72', Kolasinac S. ↓, Zappacosta D. ↑,
79', Ederson ↓, Kessie F. ↑,
84', Bellanova R. 🟨,
89', 1 - 1, Hermoso M. ⚽, Soule M. (A),
90+3', 2 - 1, Soule M. ⚽, Dybala P. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 0.

Roma is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atalanta is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Atalanta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Roma has had a series of away games.

Recently, Atalanta has had a series of home games.

In this match, Roma is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Roma won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:34. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Roma won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:14. (average 0.9:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	AS Roma	9	6	3	0	23:8	15	21
12	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	14:15	-1	10

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AS Roma: 12.31% Atalanta: 0.5%

Last Results with these Odds

Roma - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 49.4%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
31.08.26	Lecce - Roma	0:4 ✺
24.08.26	Roma - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Roma	2:2 ✺
08.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Roma	3:0 ✺
04.08.26	Newport County - Roma	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTLW
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
31.08.26	Atalanta - Bologna	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
23.08.26	Atalanta - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.08.26	Atalanta - Hapoel Tel Aviv	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Atalanta - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
18.04.26	Roma - Atalanta	1:1
03.01.26	Atalanta - Roma	1:0
12.05.25	Atalanta - Roma	2:1
02.12.24	Roma - Atalanta	0:2
12.05.24	Atalanta - Roma	2:1
07.01.24	Roma - Atalanta	1:1
24.04.23	Atalanta - Roma	3:1

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