Match Info

Serie A - Round 3

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	Q Football Asia
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN, Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	DAZN, TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	DAZN, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hungary	Match 4
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	DAZN Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Malaysia	Astro Football
Malta	TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Extra 4
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Spain	Movistar Plus+
Sweden	DAZN, TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Roma		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.80	5.25
	1.65	4.00	5.00
	1.62	3.80	5.25	Watch
	1.70	4.10	5.40
	1.68	4.14	5.14	Watch
	1.67	3.85	5.40
	1.73	3.91	5.14
	1.65	3.90	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.93)	3.94 ↑ (3.46)	5.2 ↑ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
57.3%

Draw
24.3%

Atalanta
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

27.6%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

27.8%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Roma's performance.

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Roma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	12.1%	6.9%

Roma - Atalanta Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Roma (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Roma (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Roma will win (47 of 58 users predict this - 81.03%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.94% – 91.12%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Roma will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Atalanta (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 22. Hermoso M. 77. Lulli E. 4. Cristante B. (C) 17. Kone M. 43. Wesley Franca 86. Mora R. 21. Dybala P. 14. Malen D.	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 16. Bellanova R. 3. Kossounou O. 42. Scalvini G. 23. Kolasinac S. 10. Samardzic L. 70. Gaetano G. 13. Ederson (C) 17. De Ketelaere C. 9. Scamacca G. 99. Elmas E.
Substitutes
68. Arena A. 26. Balerdi L. 9. Castro S. 70. De Marzi G. (G) 15. De Roon M. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 3. Koulierakis K. 20. Molina N. 61. Pisilli N. 2. Rensch D. 18. Soule M.	47. Bernasconi L. 19. Kessie F. 31. Kristensen T. 90. Krstovic N. 40. Obric R. 8. Pasalic M. 22. Pompei T. (G) 18. Raspadori G. 11. Rowe J. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 59. Zalewski N. 77. Zappacosta D.
Coaches
Gasperini G.	Sarri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Gasperini G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Ederson ⚽,
54', Lulli E. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
54', Mora R. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
62', Mancini G. ↓, Ghilardi D. ↑,
63', Malen D. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
66', Elmas E. ↓, Zalewski N. ↑,
66', Samardzic L. ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,
67', Ndicka E. ↓, Balerdi L. ↑,
72', Kolasinac S. ↓, Zappacosta D. ↑,
79', Ederson ↓, Kessie F. ↑,
84', Bellanova R. 🟨,
89', 1 - 1, Hermoso M. ⚽, Soule M. (A),
90+3', 2 - 1, Soule M. ⚽, Dybala P. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 0.

Roma is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atalanta is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Atalanta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Roma has had a series of away games.

Recently, Atalanta has had a series of home games.

In this match, Roma is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Roma won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:34. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Roma won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:14. (average 0.9:1.4).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AS Roma: 12.31% Atalanta: 0.79%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14:3	11	13
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5:7	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Roma - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 49.4%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
31.08.26	Lecce - Roma	0:4 ✺
24.08.26	Roma - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Roma	2:2 ✺
08.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Roma	3:0 ✺
04.08.26	Newport County - Roma	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTLW
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
31.08.26	Atalanta - Bologna	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
23.08.26	Atalanta - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.08.26	Atalanta - Hapoel Tel Aviv	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Atalanta - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
18.04.26	Roma - Atalanta	1:1
03.01.26	Atalanta - Roma	1:0
12.05.25	Atalanta - Roma	2:1
02.12.24	Roma - Atalanta	0:2
12.05.24	Atalanta - Roma	2:1
07.01.24	Roma - Atalanta	1:1
24.04.23	Atalanta - Roma	3:1

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