Match Info

Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Gigante de Arroyito (Rosario)

Referee: Lobo Medina L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
China	K-Ball
Colombia	Disney+
Italy	Como TV, SI Solo Calcio, Sport Italia, Sportitalia Solo Calcio
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Disney+, TyC Sports Internacional


	Rosario Central		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.8	3.9	Watch
	2.05	3	3.9
	2.2	2.98	3.65
	2.2	2.96	3.88
	2.21	3.02	3.72	Watch
	2.2	2.98	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.9)	2.96 ↓ (3.1)	3.78 ↓ (4.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

Watch this match and Argentinian Liga Profesional with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: TyC Sports

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Rosario Central
43.2%

Draw
31.9%

Vélez Sársfield
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

30.4%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

30.1%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rosario Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rosario Central's form might have worsened.

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rosario Central, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vélez Sársfield, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	11.8%	58.8%

Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Rosario will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Vélez will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +1 - Vélez (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Rosario (2.18) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Vélez (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Vélez (2.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vélez Sársfield will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Rosario (votes: 3 - 20%). Vélez (votes: 12 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Broun J. (C) 32. Coronel E. 15. Mallo Blanco F. 6. Komar J. 3. Sandez A. 5. Ibarra F. 31. Navarro F. 22. Giaccone L. 7. Lovera M. 21. Lopez S. 9. Copetti E.	1. Marchiori T. (G) 14. Lagos A. 34. Fernandez D. 31. Gomez V. (C) 6. Quiros A. 33. Vazquez K. A. 32. Ordonez C. 46. Porcel M. 20. Pizzini F. 7. Santos M. 9. Braian Romero
Substitutes
19. Bravo A. 27. Duarte G. 33. Elordi J. M. 16. Gimenez E. 43. Gutierrez K. 30. O'Connor T. 45. Ortiz K. 47. Raffin L. 17. Segovia S. 23. Solari A. 20. Werner A. (G)	43. Andrada I. 5. Baeza C. 26. Bouzat A. 28. Carrizo M. 8. Galvan T. 3. Gomez E. 39. Machuca I. 2. Mammana E. 10. Montoro A. 12. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Roldan L. 40. Silvero T.
Coaches
Holan A.	Barros Schelotto G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Braian Romero ⚽,
19', Quiros A. 🟨,
24', Ibarra F. 🟨,
39', Vazquez K. A. 🟨,
45+1', Coronel E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Porcel M. ↓, Bouzat A. ↑,
49', Braian Romero 🟨,
53', Quiros A. 🟨,
56', Pizzini F. ↓, Gomez E. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Sandez A. ⚽, Lovera M. (A),
58', Giaccone L. ↓, Duarte G. ↑,
59', Ibarra F. ↓, O'Connor T. ↑,
61', Santos M. ↓, Baeza C. ↑,
63', O'Connor T. 🟨,
63', Gomez V. 🟨,
70', Lovera M. ↓, Segovia S. ↑,
77', Braian Romero ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
77', Lagos A. ↓, Mammana E. ↑,
87', Coronel E. ↓, Gimenez E. ↑,
87', Lopez S. ↓, Cantizano G. ↑,
90', Baeza C. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 1, Gimenez E. ⚽, Segovia S. (A),
90+3', Gimenez E. 🟨,
90+5', Navarro F. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rosario won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Rosario could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Vélez have a series of home games.

In this match Rosario is a favorite.

There will not play in Rosario: Campaz J. (Yellow Cards) Gimenez J. (Inactive) Mallo Blanco F. (Muscle Injury) Modica A. (Knee Injury) Quintana C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Vélez: Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Monzon F. (Injury) Pernicone P. (Knee Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Rosario won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 14:24 (average 0.8:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Rosario won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:8 (average 1.1:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rosario Central
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.03.25	River Plate - Rosario Central	2:2 ✺
15.03.25	Rosario Central - Gimnasia La Plata	2:1 ✺
10.03.25	Talleres de Córdoba - Rosario Central	0:0 ✺
28.02.25	Boca Juniors - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Rosario Central - Sarmiento de Junín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWTLW
- Vélez Sársfield
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
17.03.25	Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield	1:2 ✺
07.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Huracán Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.10.24	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	3:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
05.03.24	Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central	1:0
19.10.23	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.05.23	Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central	0:0
20.06.22	Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central	2:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
15.02.22	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.07.21	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	1:0

Upcoming Matches