Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+, Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	ESPN
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	Vélez Sársfield		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.25	4.5	Watch
	1.88	3.1	4.5
	1.9	3.2	4.5	Watch
	1.91	3.18	4.71
	1.91	3	4.4	Watch
	1.9	3.26	4.51	Watch
	1.9	3.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (1.96)	3.17 ↑ (3.13)	4.52 ↑ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
49.5%

Draw
29.7%

Peñarol de Montevideo
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

30%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

29.5%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	3.6%	3.6%

Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Vélez Sársfield will win (26 of 27 users predict this - 96.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.18% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchiori T. (G) 14. Lagos A. 2. Mammana E. 31. Gomez V. 3. Gomez E. 5. Baeza C. 32. Ordonez C. 28. Carrizo M. 26. Bouzat A. 39. Machuca I. 9. Braian Romero	25. Campana M. (G) 20. Milans P. 2. Leo Coelho 34. Herrera N. 15. Olivera M. 7. Cabrera J. 5. Sosa I. 6. Perez R. 28. Baez J. 10. Fernandez L. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
43. Andrada I. 47. Bosch B. 37. Cavanagh T. 34. Fernandez D. 8. Galvan T. 10. Montoro A. 46. Porcel M. 6. Quiros A. 12. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Roldan L. 7. Santos M. 33. Vazquez K. A.	9. Avenatti F. 80. David Terans 12. De Amores G. (G) 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 27. Lucas Hernandez 77. Machado A. 18. Mayada C. 23. Mendez J. 29. Remedi E. 4. Rodriguez J. 32. Umpierrez L. 8. Villalba H.
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Baeza C. 🟨,
30', Sosa I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 0 - 1, Fernandez L. ⚽, Cabrera J. (A),
55', Lagos A. 🟨,
56', Silvera M. ↓, Machado A. ↑,
56', Cabrera J. ↓, Mayada C. ↑,
57', Baez J. 🟨,
67', Baez J. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
67', Machuca I. ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
76', Ordonez C. ↓, Santos M. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Carrizo M. ⚽, Gomez E. (A),
85', Sosa I. ↓, Remedi E. ↑,
85', Fernandez L. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
86', Lagos A. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
86', Baeza C. ↓, Vazquez K. A. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Montoro A. ⚽,
90+6', Montoro A. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Vélez is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Peñarol is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Peñarol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Vélez have a series of home games.

In this match Vélez is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vélez won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 1.6:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Vélez won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
17.03.25	Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield	1:2 ✺
07.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Huracán Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
26.02.25	Vélez Sársfield - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWLW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro Largo	0:2 ✺
27.03.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
20.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:3 ✺
15.03.25	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
04.11.20	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
28.10.20	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0
Copa Libertadores
12.03.13	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:1
26.02.13	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	0:1
Club Friendly
13.01.13	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	1:3

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