Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	19:00	Disney+, Fox Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	09:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	00:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	19:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	18:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	19:00	ESPN Premium
Colombia	17:00	ESPN
Croatia	00:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	05:00	Mola TV
Israel	01:00	Sport 4
Italy	00:00	Como TV
Mexico	16:00	Disney+
Peru	17:00	ESPN
Russia	01:00	Okko Sport
South America	—	ESPN South
Spain	00:00	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Usa	18:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	18:00	ESPN, Inter
International	22:00	Disney+


	Vélez Sársfield		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.25	4.5	Watch
	1.88	3.1	4.5
	1.9	3.2	4.5	Watch
	1.91	3.18	4.71
	1.91	3	4.4	Watch
	1.9	3.26	4.51	Watch
	1.9	3.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (1.96)	3.17 ↑ (3.13)	4.52 ↑ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
49.5%

Draw
29.7%

Peñarol de Montevideo
20.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.9%

30%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

29.5%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	3.6%	3.6%

Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Vélez Sársfield will win (26 of 27 users predict this - 96.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.18% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchiori T. (G) 14. Lagos A. 2. Mammana E. 31. Gomez V. 3. Gomez E. 5. Baeza C. 32. Ordonez C. 28. Carrizo M. 26. Bouzat A. 39. Machuca I. 9. Braian Romero	25. Campana M. (G) 20. Milans P. 2. Leo Coelho 34. Herrera N. 15. Olivera M. 7. Cabrera J. 5. Sosa I. 6. Perez R. 28. Baez J. 10. Fernandez L. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
43. Andrada I. 47. Bosch B. 37. Cavanagh T. 34. Fernandez D. 8. Galvan T. 10. Montoro A. 46. Porcel M. 6. Quiros A. 12. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Roldan L. 7. Santos M. 33. Vazquez K. A.	9. Avenatti F. 80. David Terans 12. De Amores G. (G) 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 27. Lucas Hernandez 77. Machado A. 18. Mayada C. 23. Mendez J. 29. Remedi E. 4. Rodriguez J. 32. Umpierrez L. 8. Villalba H.
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Baeza C. 🟨,
30', Sosa I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 0 - 1, Fernandez L. ⚽, Cabrera J. (A),
55', Lagos A. 🟨,
56', Silvera M. ↓, Machado A. ↑,
56', Cabrera J. ↓, Mayada C. ↑,
57', Baez J. 🟨,
67', Baez J. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
67', Machuca I. ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
76', Ordonez C. ↓, Santos M. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Carrizo M. ⚽, Gomez E. (A),
85', Sosa I. ↓, Remedi E. ↑,
85', Fernandez L. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
86', Lagos A. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
86', Baeza C. ↓, Vazquez K. A. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Montoro A. ⚽,
90+6', Montoro A. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Vélez is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Peñarol is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Peñarol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Vélez have a series of home games.

In this match Vélez is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Vélez won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 1.6:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Vélez won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
17.03.25	Atlético Tucumán - Vélez Sársfield	1:2 ✺
07.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Vélez Sársfield - Huracán Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
26.02.25	Vélez Sársfield - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWLW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro Largo	0:2 ✺
27.03.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
20.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:3 ✺
15.03.25	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
04.11.20	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
28.10.20	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0
Copa Libertadores
12.03.13	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:1
26.02.13	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	0:1
Club Friendly
13.01.13	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	1:3

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