Match Info

FA Cup - 1/128-finals

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Aesseal New York Stadium (Rotherham)


	Rotherham United		Swindon Town

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	3.05
	1.45	3.64	9.21	Watch
	2.26	3.38	3.05	Watch
	2.24	3.5	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.19)	3.51 ↑ (3.33)	4.59 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rotherham United
49.5%

Draw
28.6%

Swindon Town
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

27.5%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

25.6%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rotherham United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rotherham United's performance.

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Swindon Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rotherham United than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Swindon Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rotherham United - Swindon Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dawson C. (G) 22. Hall D. 26. Douglas H. 6. James R. 16. Yearwood D. 11. Martha A. 7. Powell J. (C) 17. McWilliams S. 44. Gore D. 10. Nombe S. 9. Hugill J.	1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. 34. Kirkman B. 16. Wilson-Brown T. 19. Snowdon J. 8. Clarke O. (C) 18. Kilkenny G. 7. Nichols T. 23. Drinan A. 9. Glatzel P. 28. Palmer O.
Substitutes
13. Cann T. (G) 37. Clarke J. 39. Duncan H. 46. Gardner D. 23. Holmes J. 20. Sherif M. 47. Truswell M.	6. Ball J. 31. Bodin B. 20. Ehibhatiomhan P. 22. Knight-Lebel J. 3. Mabete F. 33. McGregor J. 21. Murphy A. 44. Oldaker D. 12. Ward L. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Nombe S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Wilson-Brown T. ↓, Knight-Lebel J. ↑,
46', Kirkman B. ↓, Oldaker D. ↑,
58', Nombe S. ↓, Sherif M. ↑,
59', Douglas H. ↓, Holmes J. ↑,
71', Nichols T. ↓, Ehibhatiomhan P. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Palmer O. ⚽, Drinan A. (A),
77', James R. ↓, Duncan H. ↑,
79', Snowdon J. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
86', Drinan A. 🟨,
87', Gore D. 🟨,
90+7', Drinan A. 🟥,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
96', Oldaker D. 🟨,
102', McWilliams S. ↓, Clarke J. ↑,
102', Sherif M. ↓, Gardner D. ↑,
104', Kilkenny G. ↓, Murphy A. ↑,
114', Bodin B. 🟨,
115', Palmer O. ↓, McGregor J. ↑,
116', 1 - 2, Oldaker D. ⚽,
120', Hugill J. 🟨,

Preview

Rotherham has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Swindon has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Rotherham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rotherham will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Rotherham won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Rotherham won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Last Results with these Odds

Swindon Town - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 30.57%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rotherham United
English EFL Trophy
28.10.25	Rotherham United - Manchester City U21	4:2 ✺
English League One
25.10.25	Barnsley - Rotherham United	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Rotherham United - Leyton Orient	1:0 ✺
11.10.25	Northampton Town - Rotherham United	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Rotherham United - Oldham Athletic	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 WWWWW
- Swindon Town
English EFL Trophy
28.10.25	Swindon Town - West Ham United U21	2:3 ✺
English League Two
25.10.25	Swindon Town - Colchester United	0:0 ✺
21.10.25	Swindon Town - Notts County	2:2 ✺
18.10.25	Accrington Stanley - Swindon Town	4:0 ✺
04.10.25	Newport County - Swindon Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
03.05.14	Swindon Town - Rotherham United	1:2
12.10.13	Rotherham United - Swindon Town	0:4

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