Match Info

League Two - Round 13

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: The Wham Stadium (Accrington)

Referee: Young A. (Eng)


	Accrington Stanley		Swindon Town

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.86
	3.55	3.7	1.92
	3.67	3.79	2
	1.31	4.60	10.30	Watch
	3.59	3.52	1.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (3.06)	3.84 ↑ (3.48)	3.61 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Accrington Stanley
37%

Draw
30.5%

Swindon Town
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

27.1%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

26.5%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Accrington Stanley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Accrington Stanley's performance.

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Swindon Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Accrington Stanley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Swindon Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Accrington Stanley - Swindon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Accrington will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Swindon will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swindon: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Swindon (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Wright O. (G) 17. Matthews D. 5. Rawson F. 14. Ward B. 20. Brown C. 28. Conneely S. (C) 6. Coyle L. 30. Heath I. 10. Henderson A. 11. Sinclair I. 8. Madden P.	1. Ripley C. (G) 22. Knight-Lebel J. 17. Tafazolli R. 8. Clarke O. (C) 19. Snowdon J. 7. Nichols T. 18. Kilkenny G. 26. Munroe F. 9. Glatzel P. 28. Palmer O. 23. Drinan A.
Substitutes
16. Bauress J. 4. Grant C. 1. Kelly M. (G) 38. O'Brien C. 19. Popoola A. 3. Sass F. 39. Woods J.	31. Bodin B. 14. Butterworth D. 20. Ehibhatiomhan P. 44. Oldaker D. 12. Ward L. (G) 16. Wilson-Brown T. 5. Wright W.
Coaches
Doolan J.	Holloway I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Knight-Lebel J. 🟨,
8', 1 - 0, Madden P. ⚽, Henderson A. (A),
37', Clarke O. 🟥,
38', Ripley C. 🟨,
45+1', Kilkenny G. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Tafazolli R. ↓, Wilson-Brown T. ↑,
56', Brown C. ↓, O'Brien C. ↑,
61', Drinan A. ↓, Ehibhatiomhan P. ↑,
61', Glatzel P. ↓, Butterworth D. ↑,
61', Nichols T. ↓, Oldaker D. ↑,
63', Rawson F. ↓, Sass F. ↑,
72', 2 - 0, Madden P. ⚽, Heath I. (A),
73', Snowdon J. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
79', 3 - 0, Heath I. ⚽, Madden P. (A),
84', Conneely S. ↓, Bauress J. ↑,
84', Henderson A. ↓, Grant C. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 0, Madden P. ⚽, Grant C. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Accrington won 2.

Accrington is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Swindon is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Swindon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Swindon will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Accrington: Love D. (Yellow Cards) Whalley S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Swindon: Ball J. (Knee Injury) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Accrington: Rawson F. (Injury) Walton T. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Accrington won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Accrington won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:10. (average 2.4:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Accrington Stanley - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 30.85%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Swindon Town - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.07%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Accrington Stanley
English League Two
11.10.25	Accrington Stanley - Newport County	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Accrington Stanley - Port Vale	0:2 ✺
English League Two
04.10.25	Barnet - Accrington Stanley	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Accrington Stanley - Walsall	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Accrington Stanley	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LLLLW
- Swindon Town
English League Two
04.10.25	Newport County - Swindon Town	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Swindon Town - Bromley	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Salford City - Swindon Town	3:2 ✺
13.09.25	Swindon Town - Harrogate Town	3:1 ✺
06.09.25	Barrow - Swindon Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
22.03.25	Swindon Town - Accrington Stanley	0:0
English FA Cup
30.11.24	Accrington Stanley - Swindon Town	3:2 penalties
English League Two
16.11.24	Accrington Stanley - Swindon Town	2:2
12.03.24	Swindon Town - Accrington Stanley	1:2
28.11.23	Accrington Stanley - Swindon Town	3:4
English League One
06.03.21	Accrington Stanley - Swindon Town	2:1
17.11.20	Swindon Town - Accrington Stanley	0:3

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