Match Info

FNL - Round 11

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Yekaterinburg Arena (Yekaterinburg)

Referee: Kashirin D. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ural		Rotor

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	4.84
	1.81	3.25	4.83	Watch
	1.83	3.19	4.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.74)	3.25 ↓ (3.27)	4.85 ↓ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ural
51.5%

Draw
29%

Rotor
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

28.4%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

27.5%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ural has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Rotor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ural than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rotor than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Ural - Rotor Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Rotor (2.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Rotor (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
57. Selikhov A. (G) 17. Miguel G. 2. Begic S. (C) 4. Bardachev M. 16. Italo 22. Leo Cordeiro 5. Ayupov T. 11. Karapuzov V. 13. Akbashev R. 42. Mosin E. 50. Voronov M.	13. Chagrov N. (G) 2. Korotkov A. 97. Pokidyshev N. 37. Fomin D. 80. Bardybakhin V. 6. Makarov S. (C) 18. Kaynov M. 33. Arbuzov Y. 10. Simonyan A. 7. Safronov I. 70. Khokhlachev A.
Substitutes
37. Bondarev V. 97. Ishkov I. 59. Kharin E. 71. Mamin A. (G) 46. Mamin A. 20. Markov E. 18. Morozov N. 1. Oparin M. (G) 10. Sekulic M. 31. Sergeev M. M. 6. Sungatulin F. 14. Zheleznov Y.	73. Aznaurov I. 9. Davidyan D. 34. Khramtsov M. 11. Kleshchenko A. 23. Lavrishchev D. 24. Maltsev M. 27. Nikishin K. 77. Sasin D. 28. Semenov A. 17. Shilnikov G. 5. Shumskikh A. 50. Sugrobov V. (G)
Coaches
Romashchenko M.	Boyarintsev D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Safronov I. 🟨,
45+2', Fomin D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Selikhov A. ↓, Oparin M. ↑,
46', Ayupov T. ↓, Sungatulin F. ↑,
46', Karapuzov V. ↓, Ishkov I. ↑,
61', Safronov I. ↓, Shilnikov G. ↑,
61', Arbuzov Y. ↓, Aznaurov I. ↑,
63', Mosin E. ↓, Sekulic M. ↑,
64', Bardachev M. 🟨,
68', Khokhlachev A. ↓, Maltsev M. ↑,
68', Simonyan A. ↓, Davidyan D. ↑,
80', Kaynov M. 🟨,
88', Voronov M. ↓, Zheleznov Y. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ural won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Recently, Rotor has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ural is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ural won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.2:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ural won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Ural
Russian FNL
15.09.25	Ufa - Ural	2:3 ✺
08.09.25	Ural - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:1 ✺
04.09.25	Spartak Kostroma - Ural	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ural - Fakel	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Ural - Volga Ulyanovsk	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTTWW
- Rotor Volgograd
Russian FNL
14.09.25	Rotor - KAMAZ	3:0 ✺
07.09.25	Rotor - SKA Khabarovsk	1:0 ✺
03.09.25	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Rotor	0:6 ✺
30.08.25	Rotor - Spartak Kostroma	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	Rotor - Torpedo Moscow	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
03.03.25	Rotor - Ural	0:0
07.09.24	Ural - Rotor	1:1
Russian Premier League
13.03.21	Ural - Rotor	1:0
22.11.20	Rotor - Ural	0:0
Russian FNL
25.03.13	Ural - Rotor	1:1
27.08.12	Rotor - Ural	0:4

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