Match Info

FNL - Round 13

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Referee: Safyan R. (Rus)


	Torpedo Moscow		Chernomorets Novorossiysk

	1	X	2
	2.13	3.17	3.85
	2.14	3.28	3.63	Watch
	1.94	3.15	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.98)	3.2 ↓ (3.34)	3.74 ↓ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torpedo Moscow
45.5%

Draw
29.4%

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

28.4%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

29.7%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torpedo Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torpedo Moscow than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Torpedo Moscow - Chernomorets Novorossiysk Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Torpedo will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Chernomorets will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Torpedo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Torpedo (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Torpedo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Baburin E. (G) 4. Borodin S. 84. Churilov V. 97. Curic M. 23. Danilin K. 15. Danilkin E. 79. Kashtanov A. 22. Kozhemyakin O. 21. Lomakin A. 90. Roganovic B. 7. Yushin A.	73. Shtepa M. (G) 9. Aliev S. 7. Antonov A. 4. Kirsch I. 99. Morozov K. 18. Nikolaev O. 3. Pliev Z. 13. Puzanov S. 69. Rodionov I. 8. Tarba Z. 10. Zhigulev I.
Substitutes
17. Alykulov G. 9. Bakic D. 19. Baytukov R. 14. Burkhin E. 46. Dunay V. 5. Moskvichev V. 27. Orekhov A. 99. Shevchenko G. 73. Shitov V. 25. Soldatenko R. (G) 55. Stepanov D.	11. Gurchenko D. 44. Kukharchuk I. 25. Lozhkin V. 32. Matyusha M. (G) 81. Tonevitskiy E. 77. Zarypbekov E. 17. Zhilkin G.
Coaches
Parfenov D.	Evseev V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 1 - 0, Lomakin A. ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Rodionov I. ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 2, Aliev S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Puzanov S. ↓, Zhilkin G. ↑,
46', Lomakin A. ↓, Moskvichev V. ↑,
46', Curic M. ↓, Shitov V. ↑,
54', 1 - 3, Aliev S. ⚽,
63', Tarba Z. ↓, Zarypbekov E. ↑,
64', 1 - 4, Nikolaev O. ⚽,
66', Kashtanov A. 🟨,
67', Danilin K. ↓, Shevchenko G. ↑,
67', Churilov V. ↓, Dunay V. ↑,
75', Aliev S. ↓, Kukharchuk I. ↑,
75', Antonov A. ↓, Gurchenko D. ↑,
76', Yushin A. ↓, Alykulov G. ↑,
83', Rodionov I. ↓, Lozhkin V. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 12).

In recent matches, Torpedo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chernomorets is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Chernomorets may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Torpedo has had a series of away games.

Torpedo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Torpedo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Torpedo won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torpedo Moscow
Russian FNL
29.09.25	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Torpedo Moscow	0:1 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Kristall-MEZ Borisoglebsk - Torpedo Moscow	1:3 ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Sokol Saratov - Torpedo Moscow	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Torpedo Moscow - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:3 ✺
07.09.25	KAMAZ - Torpedo Moscow	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLLT
- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
29.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - KAMAZ	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Astrakhan - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:2 ✺
Russian FNL
21.09.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0 ✺
15.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	4:1 ✺
07.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Ufa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
01.03.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Torpedo Moscow	2:0
25.08.24	Torpedo Moscow - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1
04.05.24	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Torpedo Moscow	1:2
30.07.23	Torpedo Moscow - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1

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