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Current Win Probability
Chernomorets Novorossiysk 61.8%
Draw 24%
Chayka Peschanokopskoye 14.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
52.8%
28%
19.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.9%
23.3%
23.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chernomorets Novorossiysk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chernomorets Novorossiysk's performance.
Chayka Peschanokopskoye has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chayka Peschanokopskoye might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (-17.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chernomorets Novorossiysk that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chayka Peschanokopskoye than the current prediction. (+9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chayka Peschanokopskoye could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
32. Matyusha M. (G) 18. Nikolaev O. 81. Tonevitskiy E. 3. Pliev Z. (C) 13. Puzanov S. 8. Tarba Z. 99. Morozov K. 25. Lozhkin V. 10. Zhigulev I. 7. Antonov A. 44. Kukharchuk I.
58. Fadeev S. (G) 6. Petin Y. 55. Gapeev V. 15. Rogochiy B. 12. Ivannikov D. 14. Kaptilovich D. 89. Chervyakov R. 91. Stolyarov D. 10. Dzhebov A. 7. Gulyaev E. 20. Biblik S. (C)
Substitutes
9. Aliev S. 15. Alikberov T. 11. Gurchenko D. 4. Kirsch I. 5. Krachkovskii A. 19. Pomeshkin K. 69. Rodionov I. 73. Shtepa M. (G) 90. Sutugin I. 59. Syshchenko M. 17. Zhilkin G.
87. Filev A. 95. Gerdt A. 69. Gurylev A. 83. Ishchenko N. 11. Kriushichev M. 88. Markelov I. 76. Pridava N. 3. Rosputko O. 96. Sorochinskiy I. (G) 38. Topinka S. 22. Uzhgin M.
Coaches
Evseev V.
Kombarov D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Nikolaev O. 🟨,
12', 1 - 0, Antonov A. (Pen),
16', Kaptilovich D. 🟨,
33', Tonevitskiy E. 🟨,
38', Ivannikov D. 🟨,
45+3', Kukharchuk I. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Lozhkin V. ↓, Pomeshkin K. ↑,
48', 2 - 0, Tonevitskiy E. ⚽,
51', 2 - 1, Chervyakov R. ⚽,
57', Kaptilovich D. ↓, Rosputko O. ↑,
57', Gulyaev E. ↓, Ishchenko N. ↑,
62', Kukharchuk I. ↓, Aliev S. ↑,
68', Biblik S. ↓, Filev A. ↑,
68', Ivannikov D. ↓, Markelov I. ↑,
74', 3 - 1, Pliev Z. ⚽,
75', Zhigulev I. ↓, Gurchenko D. ↑,
75', Pomeshkin K. ↓, Rodionov I. ↑,
77', Dzhebov A. ↓, Kriushichev M. ↑,
78', 4 - 1, Rodionov I. ⚽,
85', Nikolaev O. ↓, Sutugin I. ↑,
Preview
We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 17 in the zone Relegation).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 2.
Chernomorets has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Peschanokopskoye has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Peschanokopskoye may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Chernomorets is the undisputed favorite.
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:20. (average 0.9:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Chernomorets won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.1:1.3).
Watch
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Matyusha M. (G) 
Lozhkin V. 
Biblik S. (C) 
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