Match Info

FNL - Round 14

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Volgograd Arena (Volgograd) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Fedotov S. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belarus	19:00	Sport TV
Russia	19:00	MATCH! Planeta, Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Rotor		Sochi

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.98	3.33
	2.4	2.95	3.25
	2.35	3.06	3.15	Watch
	2.28	2.95	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.43)	2.99 ↓ (3.22)	3.16 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rotor
39.3%

Draw
31.2%

Sochi
29.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.6%

29.2%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.5%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rotor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rotor than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+3%)

Rotor - Sochi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Chagrov N. (G) 17. Pokidyshev N. 25. Emerson 24. Kleshchenko A. (C) 29. Khityaev A. 6. Umnikov M. 2. Manelov I. 10. Simonyan A. 5. Troshechkin A. 18. Rodionov I. 11. Eldarushev A.	51. Mitrov T. (G) 44. Stojic N. 33. Marcelo Alves 3. Soldatenkov A. 27. Zaika K. (C) 5. Osipov A. 66. Metsiev A. 17. Makarchuk A. 8. Ignatov M. 28. Magal R. 9. Fedorov Z.
Substitutes
9. Aliev S. 8. Ayupov T. 15. Danilkin E. 7. Khokhlachev A. 28. Khubulov A. 20. Litvenok I. (G) 12. Revazov A. 1. Sugrobov V. (G) 22. Tsaraev A. 4. Yudintsev G.	59. Bart R. 22. Kozhemyakin O. 6. Kuzmin M. 11. Meleshin P. 60. Nosatiy M. 97. Pasevich R. 7. Sheydayev R. 85. Silev D. (G)
Coaches
Parfenov D.	Osinkin I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Pokidyshev N. ↓, Yudintsev G. ↑,
17', 0 - 1, Ignatov M. ⚽,
42', Stojic N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Rodionov I. 🟨,
59', Simonyan A. ↓, Aliev S. ↑,
63', Troshechkin A. 🟨,
67', Eldarushev A. ↓, Khubulov A. ↑,
67', Rodionov I. ↓, Khokhlachev A. ↑,
67', Manelov I. ↓, Danilkin E. ↑,
75', Osipov A. ↓, Kozhemyakin O. ↑,
83', Fedorov Z. ↓, Meleshin P. ↑,
83', Ignatov M. ↓, Kuzmin M. ↑,
83', Metsiev A. ↓, Sheydayev R. ↑,
88', Umnikov M. 🟨,
90+2', Magal R. ↓, Pasevich R. ↑,
90+2', Mitrov T. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 8th and 2nd in the Promotion - Premier League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rotor won 0.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Rotor has recorded 1 win, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:15 (averaging 1.6:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Rotor against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 7:5 goals (averaging 1.8:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sochi	15	10	2	3	26:15	11	32
11	R. Volgograd	15	5	4	6	23:18	5	19

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

R. Volgograd: 0.8%

Last Results with these Odds

Rotor - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.65%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rotor Volgograd
Russian FNL
10.10.26	Rotor - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:2 ✺
17.09.26	Tekstilshchik Ivanovo - Rotor	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Rotor - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	4:0 ✺
Russian Cup
09.09.26	Volna Kovernino - Rotor	2:0 ✺
Russian FNL
05.09.26	Shinnik - Rotor	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TWWLT
- FC Sochi
Russian FNL
11.10.26	Sochi - Ufa	1:0 ✺
18.09.26	Sochi - SKA Khabarovsk	1:1 ✺
14.09.26	Veles Moscow - Sochi	1:2 ✺
Russian Cup
09.09.26	Dinamo Saint Petersburg - Sochi	2:0 ✺
Russian FNL
05.09.26	Sochi - Nizhny Novgorod	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
14.02.25	Sochi - Rotor	1:1
Russian FNL
08.11.24	Rotor - Sochi	1:1
14.09.24	Sochi - Rotor	0:0
Russian Premier League
07.05.21	Sochi - Rotor	2:1
22.08.20	Rotor - Sochi	1:2
Russian FNL
14.11.18	Sochi - Rotor	4:2
04.08.18	Rotor - Sochi	1:1

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