Match Info

POLAND: EKSTRAKLASA - ROUND 18

Date: 8 December 2023, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
France	Canal+ Family
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport


	Ruch Chorzów		Zagłębie Lubin

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.5	2.2	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.25
	2.9	3.6	2.25	Watch
	3.02	3.68	2.33
	3.02	3.68	2.32
	2.7	3.5	2.2	Watch
	2.92	3.56	2.28	Watch
	2.95	3.6	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.65)	3.58 ↑ (3.2)	2.25 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ruch Chorzów
32.2%

Draw
26.2%

Zagłębie Lubin
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

29.3%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

29.4%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ruch Chorzów has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zagłębie Lubin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ruch Chorzów than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zagłębie Lubin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Ruch Chorzów - Zagłębie Lubin Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Ruch Chorzów will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 9 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zagłębie Lubin: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Kaminski K. (G) 2. Kasolik K. 4. Szur P. 77. Bartolewski M. 26. Michalski K. 20. Szymanski S. 6. Swedrowski T. 13. Moneta L. 70. Kozak M. 95. Szczepan D. (C) 22. Starzynski F.	1. Buric J. (G) 13. Grzybek M. 2. Kopacz B. (C) 5. Lawniczak A. 55. Mata L. 8. Dabrowski D. 20. Poletanovic M. 7. Chodyna K. 16. Buletsa S. 77. Wdowiak M. 90. Kurminowski D.
Substitutes
25. Baranowski P. 24. Baranski B. 1. Buchalik M. (G) 19. Feliks M. 10. Foszmanczyk T. 7. Letniowski J. 23. Plaskowski A. 16. Sedlak J. 18. Steczyk D.	39. Bohar D. 27. Kludka B. 6. Makowski T. 17. Mroz M. 18. Munoz J. 25. Nalepa M. 21. Pienko T. 22. Weirauch S. (G) 11. Wozniak A.
Coaches
Wos J.	Fornalik W.

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadion Śląski.

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ruch Chorzów won 1.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Ruch Chorzów: Barnowski D. (Injury) Podstawski T. (Yellow Cards) Sadlok M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Dioudis S. (Red Card)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Ruch Chorzów won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 14-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Ruch Chorzów won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ruch Chorzów
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.12.23	Cracovia - Ruch Chorzów	4:4 ✺
26.11.23	Ruch Chorzów - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
18.11.23	Widzew Łódź - Ruch Chorzów	2:1 ✺
13.11.23	Ruch Chorzów - Radomiak Radom	0:0 ✺
04.11.23	Lech Poznań - Ruch Chorzów	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTLTL
- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.12.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
24.11.23	ŁKS Łódź - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ✺
11.11.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Widzew Łódź	1:1 ✺
05.11.23	Raków Częstochowa - Zagłębie Lubin	5:0 ✺
Polish Cup
02.11.23	Cracovia - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
23.07.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Ruch Chorzów	2:1
05.05.17	Ruch Chorzów - Zagłębie Lubin	1:1
18.03.17	Zagłębie Lubin - Ruch Chorzów	0:1
30.09.16	Ruch Chorzów - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2
Club Friendly
18.06.16	Ruch Chorzów - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.04.16	Zagłębie Lubin - Ruch Chorzów	4:1
12.02.16	Ruch Chorzów - Zagłębie Lubin	0:0

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