Match Info

Date: 11 June 2022, Saturday

Location: Tapic Kenso Hiyagon Stadium (Okinawa)


	Ryūkyū		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.75	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.73
	4.2	3.4	1.85
	4.6	3.45	1.72
	4.9	3.73	1.78
	3.9	3.1	1.88
	4.65	3.66	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↑ (3.51)	3.46 ↑ (2.9)	1.78 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryūkyū
20.9%

Draw
26.9%

V-Varen Nagasaki
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

31.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

30.8%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryūkyū has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ryūkyū's form might have worsened.

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting V-Varen Nagasaki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for V-Varen Nagasaki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	25%	58.3%

Ryūkyū - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ryūkyū will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for V-Varen Nagasaki: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ryūkyū won 3.

Ryūkyū is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

V-Varen Nagasaki is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match V-Varen Nagasaki is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Ryūkyū won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Ryūkyū won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J2 League
05.06.22	Montedio Yamagata - Ryūkyū	4:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
01.06.22	Ryūkyū - Omiya Ardija	1:4 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.05.22	Ryūkyū - Tokushima Vortis	3:3 ✺
25.05.22	Omiya Ardija - Ryūkyū	1:0 ✺
21.05.22	Ryūkyū - Ventforet Kofu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLTLT
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
05.06.22	Tochigi - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
01.06.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kagoshima United	1:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.05.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Fagiano Okayama	0:0 ✺
25.05.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - JEF United Chiba	0:2 ✺
22.05.22	Renofa Yamaguchi - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
04.09.21	V-Varen Nagasaki - Ryūkyū	3:1
20.03.21	Ryūkyū - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:1
15.11.20	V-Varen Nagasaki - Ryūkyū	0:1
15.07.20	Ryūkyū - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1
10.08.19	Ryūkyū - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2
29.06.19	V-Varen Nagasaki - Ryūkyū	3:2

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